POLITICS-BURMA: Cabinet Changes May Signal Start of Civilian Rule

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Aug 27 2003 (IPS) - Burma’s ruling generals are in the process of radically changing the country’s military command structure, the government and administration – and these far-reaching changes may yet signal the start of a new political era in the country.

So far, only the comprehensive cabinet reshuffle was announced on Monday, but sources in Rangoon say more significant changes are in the pipeline which could alter the balance of power within the country.

Burma’s military intelligence chief, Gen Khin Nyunt, has been made prime minister and so effectively now controls the day-to-day running of the country.

”In practice this probably only recognised the existing reality, as General Khin Nyunt has been in effective acting as prime minister, chairing various special committees,” said a Asian diplomat in Rangoon.

But Khin Nyunt’s new post is a significant promotion for him, even though Gen Than Shwe remains the country’s head of state and chairman of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

Interviews with diplomats and residents in Rangoon show however, that they remain cautious about what these changes may mean in practice. Many believe there is likely to be a renewed effort by the government to revive the country’s declining economy and the growing humanitarian crisis.

Khin Nyunt is seen as a pragmatist within the Burmese military hierarchy who realises the need for political and economic change and wants to engage the international community. Diplomats in Rangoon believe he wants to release Aung San Suu Kyi from protective custody where she has been held for the past three months and restart the dialogue process.

While Khin Nyunt’s appointment as prime minister may lead to a shift in policy, it is unlikely to emerge for sometime yet. ”We hope the cabinet changes will lead to a speedy release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Sann Aung, a senior member of the Burmese government-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, ”but we don’t expect it.”

Whether the opposition leader is released in the next few weeks and the dialogue process resumed will depend on the broader changes in the country’s power structure that this cabinet reshuffle may be part of.

”This is the most extensive shake-up in Burmese military rule for nearly six years – when the SPDC was formed and the power of the regional commanders curtailed,” said a senior Asian diplomat, ”and may even be more significant than the leadership changes more than ten years ago, when General Than Shwe ousted General Saw Maung.”

Apart from Khin Nyunt’s promotion, several new ministers and many deputy ministers have been appointed. Many of these new ministers are in their early fifties and represent the next generation of military commanders. The Burmese state media said the cabinet changes were aimed at making the government more efficient and effective.

Although Gen Khin Nyunt has taken over as prime minister from Senior Gen Than Shwe, the country’s top general remains the head of state and firmly in control of the army.

”There will be no real change in Burma while Than Shwe remains in control,” said Burmese pro-democracy activist John Jackson. ”Khin Nyunt has been effectively demoted and will only be allowed to implement policy – and he will no longer be involved in deciding it.”

But the massive restructuring process that is currently underway in Burma will also involve changes to the military command structure.

Burma’s fourth most important military leader and army chief Thura Swe Mann has been promoted to four-star general – a military rank that is on par with General Khin Nyunt. ”Several regional commanders are also being brought back to centre (Rangoon),” said a senior Burmese military source.

At present, it is difficult to see what impact these changes in the military will have on government policy and practice. The issue will be whether there is a significant division between the authority of the government structure and the military.

”The role of prime minister will no longer be primarily ceremonial,” said a Asian diplomat who knows the generals well. ”And the cabinet and government administration is likely to take more control of the way the country is run.”

While the SPDC may have overall control of policy, the Cabinet is likely make the decisions about the day-to-day implementation of the regime’s overall approach.

A measure of the new importance of the prime minister’s office seems to be reflected in the fact that the new ministers that have been appointed to directly assist Gen Khin Nyunt, including his close confidante from military intelligence – Maj Gen Thein Swe.

Many of the deputy ministers also seem to have been handpicked by Gen Khin Nyunt, most of whom have also worked in military intelligence and so, apart from being loyal to the intelligence chief, have had practical experience in administrative work. They are also part of the new generation of senior army officers and are more likely to see the need for change.

But Burmese analysts are cautious about expecting this to produce new ideas and change. ”It is a case of old wine in new bottles,” said the senior journalist Sein Win. ”It more to do with the need to make government more efficient, improve morale and to promote a regeneration process within the army – it is a succession plan rather than a strategy for change.”

In the past few months there has been a major power struggle within the top military leadership over what to do with Aung San Suu Kyi and the national reconciliation process. Since the attack on opposition leader and her entourage while she was travelling in the north of the country Burma’s military leaders have been at a loss as to what to do.

The hardliners have wanted to put the opposition leader on trial for treason. The Attorney General’s office has already prepared the necessary case papers, according to legal sources in Rangoon.

So far, the hardliners seem to held sway in these internal debates within the military leadership.

Many diplomats also say in interviews that they believe these government changes are only cosmetic and intended to deflect international pressure – especially with the start of the U.N. General Assembly and the summit of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders in Bali only weeks away.