POLITICS-SRI LANKA: Tamil Tigers’ Split Brings Benefits to Some

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Mar 12 2004 (IPS) - Sri Lanka’s mixed population in the east may finally get a fair share in a settlement of the ethnic conflict as a result of the head-on clash between Tiger rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and his main eastern commander, a tussle that has resulted in a split in the rebels’ ranks.

Eastern residents, particularly Muslims and majority Sinhalese who live alongside Tamils in this South Asian island nation, have been unhappy at the prospect of coming under the control of a rebel-led Tamil administration – as planned under a peace formula being carved out for the north-east region.

The north, unlike the east, has mostly Tamils. The rebels are claiming the north-east in their demand for a separate state or devolved power but local residents want the east to be kept out of this formula.

Muslim leaders have not openly come out in support of Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan, better known as Colonel Karuna, who broke away from the LTTE last week after asserting that regional aspirations must be part of the peace equation.

He has retreated with a group of loyal fighters to a jungle hideout off the eastern town of Batticaloa.

Karuna’s demand to be recognised as a regional entity fits in nicely with demands by eastern Muslims and to some extent, the Sinhalese, for the east to be recognised as a separate unit from the north in a peace solution. Muslims make up seven percent of Sri Lanka’s 19.6 million people, while the Tamils account for 18 percent, and the Sinhalese comprise 74 percent.

The row between Prabhakaran and Karuna appears to have weakened the LTTE’s negotiating power because of Karuna’s formidable strength. He leads a 5,000-strong army out of a total of some 15,000 rebel fighters in addition to Tamil political parties opposed to Prabhakaran.

”The rift will impact on the negotiation process since Karuna speaks of regional aspirations. It has also weakened the LTTE in the sense that a large of armed cadres are under Karuna’s command,” says Kethesh Loganathan, director of the peace and conflict analysis unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a local think tank.

He says the crisis has also demoralised support by the Tamil community and the Tamil diaspora to the LTTE. ”Some Tamil parties (opposed to the LTTE) may sense an opportunity here.”

Analysts say the rift has also destroyed the myth that the LTTE is invincible, ruthlessly disciplined and unbreakable.

Thus far, Prabhakaran is prepared to provide amnesty to Karuna if he apologises for his conduct. But the renegade leader rejects the offer, saying it is the LTTE leader who should apologise for favouring northern rebels in the selection of high positions in the organisation and other benefits.

”Nonsense,” says Karuna, when asked about a foreign hand and a huge payoff in the split in the LTTE. ”There is no such thing. My battle is on behalf of the eastern rebel cadres and eastern (Tamil) residents who feel they have been marginalised by the north in the demand for the rights of the Tamils,” he was quoted as saying by Chris Kamalendran, a senior ‘Sunday Times’ journalist who met him on Wednesday at his lair in the jungle of Thoppigala, about 30 km from Batticaloa.

There has been speculation of involvement – for the second time in the LTTE – by India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) Intelligence unit.

In December 1994, Gopalaswamy Mahendrarajah alias Mahattaya, deputy leader of the LTTE, was arrested and later assassinated on Prabhakaran’s orders for allegedly conniving with the RAW to oust the rebel chief.

Analysts believe that Prabhakaran now faces testing times ahead in view not only of Karuna’s capacity to resist attempts to either arrest or kill him but also the prospect of anti-LTTE forces joining the renegade commander against the former.

”Karuna looks supremely confident and is able to stand up to Prabhakaran’s forces,” observed Kamalendran. ”He is ready to fight and will not give in easily

President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose parties are fighting each other at the Apr. 2 parliamentary polls, have chosen to steer clear of the rift, saying it is an internal crisis. So has Norway, the peace facilitator, and the peace monitors who have also pulled out of areas controlled by Karuna after he said the February 2002 ceasefire agreement between Wickremesinghe’s administration and Prabhakaran is not valid in his areas.

He wants a separate truce agreement, but the government has turned this down.

Kumaratunga’s partner in the Freedom Alliance coalition, the Marxist People’s Liberation Front, has however welcomed the rift and views it as a means of breaking Prabhakaran’s grip on the north-east.

The immediate concern however is the conduct of next month’s poll in the eastern town of Batticaloa. The Apr. 2 parliamentary polls across the island, which groups like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), seen as an LTTE front, are also participating in, are expected to decide the fate of the next government.

Neither Wickremesinghe’s United National Front nor the Kumaratunga-led Freedom Alliance is likely to get a reasonable parliamentary majority except with the support of smaller parties like the TNA.

The TNA is expected to win between 15 to 20 parliamentary seats and can help any mainstream party secure more than 50 percent of the 225-seat legislature.

CPA’s Loganathan says the situation in Batticaloa is very tense ahead of the poll. ”Both sides (Prabhakaran and Karuna) are poised for action. People in the East are very apprehensive, anxious and concerned.”