POLITICS-SERBIA: Still Short of the Right Turn

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Jun 14 2004 (IPS) - Despite “doomsday” prophecies of a swing to the right, ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic failed to win the presidential elections Sunday though he did lead the way in the first round.

The election now heads for a run-off Jun.27 between him and Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party whose former leader Zoran Djindjic was assassinated in March last year.

Nikolic obtained 30.1 percent of the vote (940,000 votes) while Tadic got 27.3 percent (850,000). The turnout was 3.1 million, about 47.7 percent of the electorate.

Of the remaining 13 candidates tycoon Dragoljub Karic got 19.3 percent and government candidate Dragan Marsicanin 13.3 percent. None of the rest got more than five percent.

Nikolic claimed “sweet victory” Sunday evening. “We have to fight in the runoff and obtain yet sweeter victory in order to prevent this country from becoming the slave of the West,” he said.

Others point out that he failed to win the election. “A good thing about these elections is that the myth of the radicals’ superiority and invincibility was destroyed,” analyst Predrag Simic told IPS. “This 90,000 difference in votes shows that there is a chance for the democratic candidate given a higher turnout.”

It is well known that supporters of the radicals rarely abstain, unlike pro-democracy supporters.

The small difference in votes between Nikolic and Tadic reflected the division within Serbian society. “It’s about the 1990s all over again and the runoff will show what Serbia really wants,” analyst Vladimir Goati told IPS.

Tadic told reporters Sunday night that “once again it is time to gather all the pro- democracy forces for the runoff. Pushing Serbia into the hands of radicals would mean another circle of catastrophic isolation.”

Nikolic is from the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) that participated in the government of Slobodan Milosevic who led Serbia into wars of disintegration of former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. The wars led to more than 240,000 deaths.

As a result, Serbia was punished with strict international sanctions and isolation, topped with North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombing in 1999. The bombing was undertaken due to the repressive politics of Milosevic against Kosovo Albanians.

Like Milosevic, SRS leader Vojislav Seselj stands trial for war crimes against non- Serbs before the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague in the Netherlands.

Members of Milosevic era secret police are on trial for the assassination of Djindjic, who masterminded the downfall of Milosevic. The former president was finally removed on October 5, 2000.

“The runoff will deal with values before and after October 5,” Goati said. “Serbia has to deal with that once and for all.”

Analysts warn that the Sunday results will put the Serbian government to test, initiating a new crisis in the country. Its candidate obtained less than 14 percent of votes, and two of three coalition partners are saying it failed in its task. This is the party of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.

“We have either to reconstruct the government or call early elections,” deputy prime minister Miroljub Labus told journalists Sunday.

The Serbian government is only 100 days old. It was confirmed by parliament only with the help of votes of Milosevic’s Socialists.

Radicals obtained the largest number of seats in the parliament (82 out of 250) in the last December elections, but no party would join them to form a government.