EGYPT: Opposition Crumbles After Poor Showing

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow

CAIRO, Feb 22 2006 (IPS) - Secular opposition parties are floundering after elections last year that saw parliamentary seats largely divided between the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and the Muslim Brotherhood.

With one leader in prison and other opposition groups wracked by leadership struggles, some analysts suggest that the NDP’s historic monopoly on national politics has led to the evaporation of secular alternatives..

“The regime hasn’t allowed any real secular parties to operate, and that’s why most Egyptians didn’t participate in elections,” Emad Gad, a political analyst at the government-run Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies told IPS. “Because of the extremely closed nature of the regime and the ruling NDP, Egypt’s secular opposition has remained voiceless.”

Gad added that the banned-but-tolerated Muslim Brotherhood, which performed surprisingly well in parliamentary elections last November and December, “have greatly benefited from this situation.”

In contrast to the unified front and the tightly run campaign presented by the Brotherhood, secular opposition parties are in turmoil.

Egypt’s oldest opposition group, the liberal Wafd Party, has been split down the middle between self-styled reformers and a stubborn old guard of party stalwarts.

In mid-January, the party’s younger cadres staged a coup against longtime Wafd headman Noaman Gomaa, who party reformers criticised for his “dictatorial” management style. The party general assembly is expected to elect a new chairman next month.

Political observers attribute the crisis to the Wafd’s uninspiring electoral performances. Gomaa came in a distant third in September’s presidential elections, and the party picked up only six seats in parliamentary elections shortly afterwards.

“Gomaa’s ouster can be attributed to his poor showing in the presidential elections as well ongoing tension between party reformers and Gomaa’s autocratic ways,” said Issandr El Amrani, an independent Cairo-based journalist who specialises in Egyptian politics. “But his bad performance in the election was the final straw.”

The liberal Al-Ghad Party, until recently hailed as the great hope for the secular opposition, has fared no better.

After coming in second after NDP incumbent President Hosni Mubarak in the presidential race, Al-Ghad leader Ayman Nour is now serving a five-year prison sentence for forgery.

After winning only a single seat in parliament, the party, formed in late 2004, was sundered by rival leadership claims after Nour was convicted in late December for falsifying party documents.

Some observers suggest that Nour was targeted principally because of the threat he posed to Mubarak’s son, Gamal, who many believe is being groomed to succeed his father.

Young and progressive, Nour stood for many of the issues ostensibly embraced by Gamal Mubarak and his ‘new guard’ of reformers, particularly economic reformers, within the ruling party. “Ayman Nour was targeted largely because he had the potential to steal Gamal Mubarak’s reformist platform,” said Amrani..

Egypt’s time-worn socialist parties, too, appear on the verge of collapse.

The leftwing Al-Tagammu’ Party has been embroiled in a series of internal disputes after winning only two parliamentary seats in November. In the absence of noticeable improvements in the short term, party officials say new leadership will be considered.

The pan-Arab Nasserist Party has lost a number of its most prominent members after failing to win a single seat in the People’s Assembly. Among them are two prominent editors of party mouthpiece Al-Araby, long known for its vocal criticism of the regime.

“Both of these parties are disintegrating,” said Hisham Kassem, vice-chairman of independent daily Al-Masry Al-Youm. “Now, the leaders of these old opposition groups are only interested in keeping their positions as the heads of their parties.”

Speaking to the state press shortly after the parliamentary elections, Al-Tagammu’ member Khaled Hamza said the political left was now “too scattered and divided.” He added: “On too many occasions, the various factions have squandered whatever political capital they possessed on squabbling among themselves.”

According to Gad, the crises plaguing the secular opposition are also the result of a longstanding government strategy of pre-empting the emergence of secular alternatives to the NDP.

“If the secular opposition wants to form a new party, it must apply to the government for a licence,” he said. “But if the party looks like it might have a real chance of success, the licence will be refused.”

The would-be Al-Karama party that disenchanted Nasserist Party members want to set up has been applying for official recognition since the late 1990’s. The group’s application was most recently rejected on grounds that it “advocates a radical ideology.”

Gad added that the only remaining options left to secular-minded reformist voters were a handful of toothless parties, none of which have the grassroots strength to threaten the status quo.

“Twenty percent of the population participated in the parliamentary election,” Gad said. “The other 80 percent stayed home because secular voters didn’t have any real parties available to them.”

With secular opposition parties securing a total of only nine parliamentary seats out of 444, the vacuum was easily filled by the Muslim Brotherhood, which captured an astonishing 88 seats, up from only 15 in the previous assembly.

“Given the state of the non-religious opposition, the Brotherhood becomes the voter’s only alternative,” said Kassem. “They’re the only ones that have the organisational structure to run any kind of campaign.”

“Currently, there are only two platforms available to voters – the ruling NDP and the mosque,” added Kassem. “Until this reality changes, no viable parties will be able to operate in Egypt.”