Ecobreves – CARIBBEAN: Fewer Hurricanes Predicted, But Risk Persists

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HAVANA, Oct 14 2006 (IPS) - The influence of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) makes it less likely that tropical cyclones will form in the North Atlantic, but the risk is not eliminated, warn Cuban meteorologists. Maritza Ballester, who created the Cuban model for predicting hurricanes, explained to Tierramérica that the development of ENOS was very abrupt and fundamentally affected the warming of the Pacific Ocean currents along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.

El Niño began to manifest in July, and Cuba maintained its prediction of around 15 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, nine of which could reach hurricane category, with winds of 118 km/hour or more.

October is traditionally one of the most active months of the hurricane season, which lasts from June to November.