MOLDOVA: Victorious Rebel Leader Looks at Russia

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Dec 12 2006 (IPS) - Democratic or not, results say Igor Smirnov, incumbent leader of the self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria, will stay for a fourth consecutive term as he promises to push the region into a Russian embrace.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a brief civil war erupted in Moldova, a country of 4.5 million, following demands of independence on a fringe of land east of the river Dniester.

The Moldovan breakaway region of half a million people has all the characteristics of a proper state, boasting a government, a parliament, an army and media outlets, but it lacks one important attribute: international recognition.

But that didn’t stop the region from holding its fourth presidential election, “with no proper conditions,” according to Nicu Popescu, a political analyst from the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

“Smirnov has a certain pull of popularity, but there is no media, no debate, no independent civil society and no openness to the international community in Transnistria,” he told IPS.

Officials in Moldova and its two neighbours Ukraine and Romania have already denied the legitimacy of the vote. The few international election observers present had conflicting accounts of its regularity.

Smirnov, promising increased pensions and social allowances, obtained 82.4 percent of the vote, followed by Communist candidate Nadezhda Bondarenko at 8 percent, journalist Andrey Safonov at 3.9 percent and businessman Petr Tomayly at 2.1 percent. The voter turnout was 66 percent.

The Helsinki Committee for Human Rightsin Moldova believes Transnistrians were forced to vote for President Smirnov under threats of job losses, and insists the campaign was immensely biased towards the election winner.

On the other hand the British Helsinki Human Rights Group, conceding campaign conditions had been unequal, argued the vote itself had been flawless.

That was not the view of presidential candidate Safonov, who pointed to the incongruence of official results with exit polls, which gave Smirnov only 64 percent of the vote.

Safonov, seen as Smirnov’s most threatening rival, faced several hurdles before authorities finally allowed him to participate in the election a few days before the poll. Communist Bondarenko also complained that his followers had been intimidated.

“Smirnov did not fear defeat, but rather that a proper election campaign could raise too many questions on how Transnistria is governed,” Popescu told IPS.

Safonov claims he was given little time to promote electoral promises, among them the demilitarisation of the region, and the settlement of the dispute with Moldova through the establishment of a federation, with elements of a co-federation.

Smirnov, who has promised not to run again in 2011, rules out a common state with Moldova due to what he considers irreconcilable socio-economic differences, though he says he is willing to resume talks if Moldova lifts its “economic blockade” on the region.

A recent agreement between Moldova and Ukraine stipulated all Transnistrian goods must receive customs clearance in Moldova, thus hampering the breakaway region’s efforts to pursue an independent foreign economic policy.

The move was justified on the grounds of combating widespread smuggling, but was also the result of Moldova losing several million dollars yearly in revenue from taxes and duties.

Partly due to socio-economic divergences, Transnistria and Moldova have failed to reach an understanding on power-sharing, with Tiraspol demanding a co-federation and Moldova favouring only autonomy.

“A co-federation might help a little bit,” admits Popescu, “but the damage of it would be much greater because it would paralyse the reform process in Moldova.”

For Moldova, aiming for membership of the European Union (EU) and the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), “it is unacceptable to share power with authorities in Transnistria,” he told IPS.

The lack of debate both at the governmental and societal level and the absence of realistic solutions are attracting Transnistria to Russia. The Sep. 17 referendum confirmed this, with 97 percent of Transnistrians backing an eventual union with Russia.

For that purpose Smirnov has repeatedly stated his intention to streamline Transnistrian legislation with that of the Russian Federation, and Moscow recently signed cooperation protocols with Tiraspol in such diverse areas as industry, financial markets and social protection.

“Just as Central and Eastern Europe has been aligning its legislation to that of the European Union, Russia is trying the same with Transnistria,” says Popescu.

With Romania entering the EU in January 2007, Moldova will become a direct neighbour of the supranational organisation, and Transnistria will become a more pressing issue.

“The EU should start being more creative on how to integrate this region,” says Popescu. “Instead of focusing on electoral events, more attention should be paid to the soft side of democratisation – supporting mass media, education, civil society, and debates around political developments in Transnistria,” he told IPS.

But election winner Smirnov does not seem intent on ‘Europeanising’ Transnistria. “Moldova has made its choice of moving towards NATO and Europe without asking its people,” Smirnov said just before securing his fourth term. “We have also made our choice, but on the basis of the people’s will. The Dniester region will develop jointly with great Russia.”