POLITICS-SERBIA: Poll Brings a Break With the Past

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Jun 28 2004 (IPS) - Pro-West reformer Boris Tadic defeated ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic in the crucial presidential run-off Sunday, raising Serbia’s hopes of joining the family of European nations and promising stability in the region.

"Serbia’s path to Europe has no alternative," Tadic (46) told journalists in the early hours of Monday after the first unofficial results showed he won 53.7 percent of the vote. "This result has shown that democratic forces in this country have once again made a historic decision."

Tadic, the first non-communist president of Serbia since World War II, beat Tomislav Nikolic from the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) who obtained 45 percent of the vote. The turnout was 48.7 percent, 3.1 million in an electorate of 6.5 million.

The Radicals were the main ally of former leader Slobodan Milosevic and his Socialists, who waged wars that brought the disintegration of former Yugoslavia and took the lives of more than 250,000 people in the 1990s. Both Milosevic and SRS leader Vojislav Seselj face trial for war crimes at the UN founded International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) at The Hague.

The European Union (EU) sent several clear messages to Serbia last week that a victory for the SRS candidate would mean renewed isolation of the country that was already a pariah state until Milosevic fell from power in 2000.

In the Balkans, Serbia and Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina remain isolated islands without any prospect of joining the European Union (EU) in the near future. Their neighbours Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria are expected to join by 2007. Macedonia is going through the assessment process. Hungary and the former Yugoslav republic Slovenia became full members this May.

"Tadic’s victory is the biggest step towards Europe and European values so far," analyst Vladimir Goati told IPS. "This stable politician has already promised stability for Serbia, and as always stable Serbia means a stable region."

Nikolic had pledged in his campaign to deliver the ultranationalists’ dream of a Greater Serbia that would include the now independent states Croatia and Bosnia. The idea of a Greater Serbia had led to the wars of the 1990s. Radicals described the reforms introduced in Serbia after Milosevic fell from power almost four years ago as "slavery to the West."

The EU welcomed Tadic’s victory. Javier Solana, EU high representative for a common foreign and security policy said in a statement that "people of Serbia have clearly expressed their desire for a European future."

He added in a statement: "Serbian authorities now have to seize the opportunity to revitalise the process of political and economic reforms, to promote friendship and reconciliation with their neighbours and to fulfill international obligations."

Among the first obligations is handing over of war crime suspects like former Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. They are accused of the massacre of more than 7,000 Muslims in Srebrenica town in 1995. Four Serbian police and army generals are wanted by the ICTY for atrocities against ethnic Albanians in southern Serbian province Kosovo.

"There is no dilemma over the ICTY," Tadic said Monday morning. "I have said a thousand times and will repeat once again: we have to cooperate with the tribunal…as for our neighbours and the recent past, I have to say that Serbia now is not ruled by the politicians that would send people to wars and death."

In neighbouring Croatia Tadic’s victory was praised as further evidence of democracy taking roots in Serbia.

"This is a proof that democratic option does have a chance in Serbia," parliament speaker Vladimir Seks told Croatian media. Opposition leader Ivica Racan said "the victory of Tadic was crucial for the stability of the region and for Serbia’s neighbours." It was a guarantee that no war ambitions exist in Croatia’s neighbourhood, he added.

"It was the fear from Radicals and another cycle of isolation that brought victory to Tadic," analyst Slobodan Antonic told IPS. "The ordinary people saw better promise from him, like joining Europe in any manner and going down the road of reforms, no matter how painful they are."

The economic recovery of Serbia has been stalled since the reform-oriented former prime minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated in March 2003. The new government of Vojislav Kostunica has a more conservative approach to Serbia’s problems. It is a coalition of four parties that does not include the Democratic Party of Tadic.

Tadic said cohabitation with such a government was possible. "There is no need to make moves that would rock the boat as long as Serbia remains on the right track."

Analysts like Antonic and Goati say that early parliamentary elections are likely in the fall. "It will be the chance for all the democrats to unite and to wipe out the Radicals, who are clearly and finally in decline," Antonic said. "Four years after the warmongering politicians fell from power it will be a new chapter. Things do go slow in Serbia."

Speaking to thousands of supporters during the night in the downtown streets of Belgrade, Tadic dedicated his victory to Djindjic.

"This is a victory for you, Zoran (Djindjic) and for your life," he said, as the crowd shouted the name of the slain leader. Djindjic masterminded the ousting of Milosevic in 2000.