POLITICS-JAPAN: Cabinet Resigns to Pave Way for New Leader

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Apr 4 2000 (IPS) - Finding a successor to the ailing Japanese prime minister Keizo Obuchi is particularly crucial because of two important events coming up in the next few months: the G-8 Summit in Okinawa and a general election this fall.

“The choice must be handled with care given the upcoming Summit and the powerful Lower House election. Obuchi’s stroke has created a devastating political vacuum,” says Professor Masayuki Fukuoka, a political analyst at Hakuo University.

After almost a day, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) revealed Monday afternoon that Obuchi, 62, suffered a serious stroke early Sunday and was in a coma.

Doctors say the prime minister, who took over the reigns of government 20 months ago, would not be able to recover from the stroke. Obuchi’s office confirmed that his condition has not improved and he would not be able to return to his job.

This prompted the entire Cabinet to resign, as is the practice, to enable the ruling party to appoint a new leader. The LDP nominee for prime minister will have to be confirmed by Parliament, but the ruling party has enough votes to ensure the victory of their candidate.

Acting Prime Minister Mikio Aoki told reporters a new Cabinet will be named immediately after the new prime minister is confirmed in order not to create a political vacuum.

The LDP is locked in negotiations aimed at securing consensus to appoint a new leader. A likely successor is Yoshiro Mori, who is party secretary-general.

The expected appointment of Mori, 63, who is viewed as a conservative, once again indicates that consensus, rather than leadership, is the winning card in Japanese politics.

He has the support of all the LDP factions as well as Komeito party that belongs to the LDP coalition. He is however little known in international circles, says Fukuoka, a factor that would put Japan at a disadvantageous position as host to the G-8 Summit.

Fukuoka considers Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa, a better choice. He points out that Miyazawa has a better international profile, given his experience as former prime minister.

Political analysts explain that Obuchi’s successor should possess strong leadership skills to carry out economic reforms, and with that as a consideration, Mori is the better choice as he has good relations within the coalition government.

“Mori has long experience within the LDP and will be able to pass the necessary reforms by the goodwill he has gained with politicians,” explains Shiota Ushio, an independent political commentator.

“Still,” says Ushio,” Mori is not likely to win popular support for the LDP. The public will view his appointment as a typical LDP maneuver, where personal loyalties take precedence over reform. They will be very sappointed.”

Observers point out that Mori has the reputation of following old LDP style of politics. He has worked with three generations of LDP factions and is not known to be one who is inclined to initiate reform.

“Obuchi, like Mori, had no international appeal. But at least Obuchi by having charisma, worked hard for a consensus. Mori, on the other hand, is considered an opportunist and is not as trusted as Obuchi,” says Ushio.

No major policy change is expected under a new prime minister, analysts say, as it would still be the LDP under the helm.

Obuchi had worked hard for closer Sino-Japanese relations, as well as for economic assistance to Southeast Asian countries crippled by a financial crisis a few years ago.

Some analysts predict that Mori, if elected prime minister, will call for early elections, possibly before the July summit.