POLITICS: Peace Deal Brings Cautious Optimism to Madagascar

By James Hall Reprint | | Print |

James Hall

ANTANANARIVO, Apr 22 2002 (IPS) - This week, as the peace deal between rival Madagascan presidential contenders is implemented, the agreement is seen not only as salvation for the Indian Ocean island nation, but also as a significant testimony that Africa can settle its own disputes.

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) succeeded where the United Nations failed. The diplomatic reputation of Senegal’s president Abdoulaye Wade, 75, has been reinforced.

With the authority of the OAU, Wade invited Madagascar’s incumbent president Didier Ratsiraka, 67, and challenger Marc Ravalomanana, 56, to Dakar, the capital of Senegal, for their first face to face meeting since the contested Dec 16 presidential elections.

The elections started a crisis that resulted in two national presidents, two national capitals and governments, a divided army, a shattered economy, and a devastated national infrastructure.

In fact, the OAU’s two previous attempts failed to broker a peace deal between rival factions, or circumvent the deaths of 35 people in the conflict. It was the head of Madagascar’s sister Francophone state, Senegal’s Wade, who broke the impasse. Also involved in the mediations, for the record, were Ibrahim Fall, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s Special Representative in West Africa, and Amara Essy, the OAU’s Secretary General.

As if to emphasise the “African solution to an African problem” accomplishment in Dakar, on the day of their arrival, Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana met separately with the presidents of the Ivory Coast, Benin, and Mozambique – Laurent Gbagbo, Mathieu Kerekou, and Joachim Chissano respectively – in addition to Wade.

“The speed by which the agreement was struck shows that both sides wanted peace,” says an African diplomat whose portfolio encompasses the continent’s Indian Ocean island nations. “Madagascar has never seen such strife as the last four months. Everyone is relieved.”

Round the clock negotiations, highlighted by Wade’s emphasis to both rivals that their people will not forgive them if an opportunity for peace is lost, concluded in less than two days.

The agreement calls for Ratsiraka, a long-time military ruler who was subsequently elected to two terms as president, to remain in office, temporarily. Ravalomanana becomes the number two most powerful man in the country, in his new position, as head of a transitional national council.

Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana will jointly appoint a new prime minister, and independently choose five key cabinet ministers – finance and interior appointed by Ravalomanana, and the rest by Ratsiraka.

One fly in the deal’s ointment is Ravalomanana’s “prime minister”, Jacques Sylla, who the day after the agreement was announced declared that his parallel government would remain in force until a recount of the presidential election results called for in the agreement is known.

A new electoral commission will come into being to prepare for a runoff election, which has been a key point of contention between the rivals, if this proves necessary.

Ravalomanana had claimed he won over half the popular vote, but the High Constitutional Commission, comprised of Ratsiraka appointees, had ruled the challenger received less than the required 50 percent of the vote, necessitating a runoff election that would have given Ratsiraka a second chance.

Instead, Ravalomanana proclaimed himself president, appointed his own cabinet, and hunkered down in the capital city, where he had served as a popular mayor, after Ratsiraka, self-exiled to his home base, the port city of Tamatave, responded to Ravalomanana’s call for a general strike by cutting off supplies to Antananarivo.

The Dakar agreement calls specifically for an end to the dynamiting of bridges and the removal of road barricades used by Ratsiraka supporters to effect the capital blockade. Both sides agreed to desist from all forms of violence.

The government of national reconciliation that begins this week will be a transitional authority to facilitate a return to democracy in six months. Meanwhile, a recount of December’s presidential polling is underway. If it turns out that neither candidate has achieved an outright majority, then in October a new election will be held.

“Ratsiraka may yet get a win out of this,” suggested Aubrey Carriero, a Mozambique-based political writer.

A majority of press commentators, however, feel Ratsiraka is preparing for retirement.

“I am satisfied that personal ambitions have been set aside for the good of Madagascar,” said Ratsiraka before leaving Dakar for a visit to France Thursday.

“An honourable solution to Madagascar’s problems has been found. After disagreement, we make agreement,” summarised Ravalomanana before returning home on Friday, a presumptive president no longer.

International media reports that incorrectly stated that Ratsiraka claims to have won the December poll (Ratsiraka contends that neither he nor Ravalomanana won an outright majority) speculates that Ravalomanana may be taking a risk with the Dakar agreement, because lost or destroyed ballots from December’s election may skew the recount.

However, a recount that gives Ratsiraka an outright majority would lack credibility in light of Ratsiraka’s contention, based on the findings of his own election commission, that he and his rival each won about 48 percent of the vote.

While Ravalomanana’s supporters are not happy that their candidate has yielded his self-given title as president, the consensus of observers is that the mood in the capital is one of “guarded optimism”.

“We are happy to have the blockade lifted, to have supplies of food and fuel again,” says merchant Rudolph LeBlanc.

If a new election proves necessary, polling will be conducted under the joint supervision of the Organisation of Africa Unity, United Nations and European Union, emphasising the international concern the Madagascar crisis has engendered, and the optimism these groups have that a peaceful solution will reflect well on their involvement.