ANGOLA-POLITICS: CAN A PEACE DEAL HOLD?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

LUSAKA, Nov 16 1994 (IPS) - IF OBSERVERS OF THE ANGOLAN CRISIS TAKE RECENT PEACE OVERTURES BY THE GOVERNMENT AND UNION FOR THE TOTAL INDEPENDENCE OF ANGOLA (UNITA) WITH A PINCH OF SALT, THEY CAN HARDLY BE ACCUSED OF CYNICISM.

PROTRACTED TALKS IN THE ZAMBIAN CAPITAL TO END THE ANGOLAN CIVIL WAR HAVE PROVEN THAT THE TWO SIDES CAN, WHEN EXPEDIENCY DEMANDS, BE EXCEEDINGLY UNPREDICTABLE.

BOTH SIDES AGREED, IN PRINCIPLE AT LEAST, TO A CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT IN DECEMBER 1993 — BUT PERSISTED IN THEIR ATTACKS ON EACH OTHERS POSITIONS.

ONLY DAYS AFTER THEY AGREED TO STOP FIGHTING, UNITA BOYCOTTED THE U.N. BROKERED TALKS FOR A WHOLE WEEK. GOVERNMENT FORCES HAD LAUNCHED FRESH BOMBING RAIDS IN WHAT THE REBEL MOVEMENT SAID WAS AN ATTEMPT ON ITS LEADER, JONAS SAVIMBI’S, LIFE.

BOTH SIDES SAID THEY HAD RESOLVED THE POWER SHARING DEBATE BY MID-FEBRUARY THIS YEAR — BUT CONTINUED TO FIGHT OVER THE GOVERNORSHIP OF HAUMBO, SAVIMBI’S MILITARY STRONGHOLD, AND THE REBEL LEADERS SPECIFIC ROLE IN A POST-WAR GOVERNMENT.

THAT LASTED UNTIL OCTOBER.

THE NEARER THE LUSAKA PEACE TALKS DREW TO A CONCLUSION, THE MORE UNPREDICTABLE EACH SIDE SEEMED TO BECOME.

UNITA, WHICH HAD EARLIER DROPPED ITS DEMAND FOR HUAMBO, THE COUNTRY’S SECOND CITY, WARNED THAT A PEACE DEAL THAT DID NOT GIVE IT THE GOVERNORSHIP OF ITS STRONGHOLD WOULD BE “MEANINGLESS.”

PREDICTABLY, THE TWO SIDES FAILED TO MEET THE SECURITY COUNCIL’S SEP 30 DEADLINE FOR THE CONCLUSION OF THE TALKS, AND ONLY MANAGED TO BEAT THE WORLD BODY’S NEW DEADLINE A MONTH LATER BY AN HOUR.

UN MEDIATOR ALIOUNE BLONDINE BEYE ANNOUNCED AT A TRIUMPHANT PRESS CONFERENCE AN HOUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON OCT 31, THAT THE 10 POINT AGENDA OF THE LUSAKA TALKS HAD BEEN CONCLUDED “TO THE SATISFACTION OF ALL PARTIES CONCERNED,” AND THE LUSAKA PROTOCOL WOULD BE SIGNED BY THE TWO SIDES ON NOV 15.

HIS OPTIMISM, AS IT TURNED OUT, WAS MISPLACED. THE GOVERNMENT BROUGHT UP FRESH ISSUES OF DIFFERENCE, INCLUDING, IRONICALLY, THE PERSONAL SECURITY OF SAVIMBI — AN ISSUE UNITA INSISTED HAD ALREADY BEEN ADDRESSED.