BANGLADESH-POLITICS: More Instability Predicted After Polls

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Tabibul Islam

DHAKA, Jun 11 1996 (IPS) - After being paralysed by political uncertainty for two years, Bangladesh finally goes to the polls Wednesday. But the elections are expected to result in a hung parliament and prolong the chaos.

The political crisis was the result of what has been called ‘The Battle of Begums’– a power struggle between Sheikh Hasina Wajed of the Awami League and Begum Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP).

Awami League-led strikes and shutdowns in protest against Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s refusal to agree to a neutral interim government ahead of polls paralysed business and politics in this fledgling South Asian democracy.

On Wednesday, nearly 57 million voters will decide the final outcome of this running feud. And hovering ominously on the sidelines is the army that has held power for at least 18 of the 25 years of Bangladesh’s independent existence.

In an unprecedented action last month, President Abdur Rahman Biswas sacked Army chief Abusaleh Nasim after a spat over the forcible retirement of top armymen. Nasim was placed under house arrest and an uprising in some army garrisons was quietly subdued.

Both the Begums (Begum means wife in Urdu) have accused each other of engineering the incident to benefit their respective parties.

Nearly 40,000 army personnel will be among the 400,000 security forces deployed to maintain law and order during the election that is being held under a neutral caretaker regime.

This is the second time that a general election is being held under a caretaker regime. The first such election in February 1991 that brought Begum Zia to power was billed as the country’s most free and fair one.

But, in March 1994, the Awami League along with the Jatiya Party and the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami launched a countrywide agitation alleging that Begum Zia’s government had rigged a by-poll and should step down to pave the way for a neutral caretaker government.

Street agitations were followed by the en mass resignation of the opposition from Parliament. Ignoring the demands for stepping down, Begum Zia held a farcial election on Feb 15 this year which was boycotted by the opposition.

On March 30, she finally resigned, paving the way for a neutral caretaker government and a fresh election.

Most pollsters predict a neck-and-neck race for the parties led by the two Begums. However, a section says Wajed and her Awami League have a slight edge.

As many as 2,574 candidates are contesting the 300 seats in Parliament. The new members will elect candidates for the 30 seats reserved for women. A total of 81 parties are in the fray.

Of these, the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jatiya party led by the incarcerated former President and Martial Law Administrator, Hussain Mohammed Ershad are expected to emerge as key players in the post-election scene.

If there is a hung parliament as the pollsters are predicting, the two parties could emerge as kingmakers. Some opinion polls say the Jatiya party is likely to increase its tally of 35 seats that it held in the previous Parliament.

There is widespread speculation that the Jatiya party is likely to ally with the BNP because both the parties were formed by former army generals and share a similar ideology.

Analysts say the feud between the two Begums might continue despite the poll outcome because neither has been known to accept defeat gracefully.

Both Zia and Wajed are products of dynastic politics. Zia is the widow of General Zia-ur-Rahman, killed in a coup in 1991, and Sheikh Hasina is daughter of Bangladesh’s founding father and first prime minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who was assassinated in 1975.

Both command absolute loyalty from their party ranks and are mutually suspicious of the role played by the other party in the assassinations.

The mutual dislike is exacerbated by regular accusations hurled at each other of being too close to their gigantic South Asian neighbour, India.

India had stepped in militarily to assist Sheikh Mujibur

Rahman in the formation of an independent Bangladesh in 1971. Since then, the Awami League has been open to criticism of favouring India and being likely to soft-pedal on important bilateral issues like the sharing of the Ganga waters.

The Awami League, on the other hand, has accused the BNP of turning Bangladesh into a captive market for Indian goods and following a submissive policy towards that country.

Being the party in power, the BNP also faces charges of corruption, administrative bungling that led to a fertiliser crisis, the deterioration of law and order and neopotism.

The BNP in turn accuses the Awami League of paralysing the administration and cancelling all the gains made by the economy that had just begun treading the path of liberalisation and reform.