ZAIRE-U.S.: All Eyes on Kinshasa

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, May 7 1997 (IPS) - With rebels closing in on Kinshasa from virtually all directions, U.S. officials are hoping the Zairean capital will fall without a fight.

While Washington is still holding out for an “orderly” transfer of power from President Mobutu Sese Seko to a transition government likely to be headed by rebel leader Laurent Kabila, the chances of that happening are quickly fading.

That particular scenario was dealt a hard blow over the weekend when Nelson Mandela was unable to get the two men, who met for the first time aboard the South African supply ship Outeniqua off Congo’s port of Pointe Noire Sunday, to agree on the details of such a transition.

Instead, they promised to meet again within 10 days, by which time, according to U.S. officials, Kinshasa may already have fallen.

“It is increasingly apparent that President Mobutu or his representatives need to urgently conduct negotiations with the rebel alliance,” said State Department spokesman John Dinger Tuesday.

But Tuesday’s announcement in Kinshasa that Mobutu will visit Gabon Wednesday and return to the Zairean capital on Friday is another indication that an “orderly” transition to guarantee continuity of government is not on the cards.

“Frankly, we don’t expect him to return,” said one official, adding that Mobutu was considered likely to fly directly to his villa in France where he has also been treated for the advanced stages of prostate cancer. “There won’t be much to come back to.”

Washington’s worst-case scenario is a major fight for Kinshasa between the rebel Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL) and the remnants of an army which has shown a marked preference for looting and running at the first sign of battle during the seven-month campaign waged by Kabila’s insurgents.

But if the army, and especially Mobutu’s own presidential guard, decides to put up a last stand in Kinshasa, or loot and burn the capital as at least one senior commander has suggested, the outcome could be devastating to the giant Central African country.

One official suggested that any protracted violence in Kinshasa could prompt Zaireans outside the capital to organise armed self- defence forces which, in the long run, could foster separatist movements in some provinces, especially Shaba and the two Kasai provinces where opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi is popular.

“So much depends on how Mobutu bows out,” said the official, who described the tension in Kinshasa as “very high.”

So far, however, there are few signs that Mobutu’s forces are seriously preparing to resist the rebels. Officials cite reports that army troops, most of whom have not been paid for months, are donning civilian clothes, while some key senior officers, including members of the presidential guard, have left the country. Others seem to be biding their time.

“We can’t see any serious opposition,” said one official. “The way this campaign started out seems to be the way it’s finishing.”

Rebel units are believed to be from 15 to 40 kms from Kinshasa, although reports indicate that AFDL agents have entered the city and have begun passing out leaflets in various districts, as they did before assaulting other major cities in their westward push from the Zaire-Rwanda border.

But Kabila is believed unlikely to launch any military assault on the capital until he can deploy larger forces there. At other key moments during the rebel campaign, notably at Kisangani and Lu~umbashi, the AFDL halted its forces on the outskirts of cities for days to let reinforcements arrive and give army forces a chance to flee.

“He doesn’t want to fight if he doesn’t have to,” said one official.

For its part, Washington has sharply raised its diplomatic profile in the last two weeks, primarily by sending out U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson to help the South Africans prepare the ship-board meeting Sunday. Richardson reportedly delivered a personal message from President Bill Clinton to Mobutu, demanding that he cooperate in arranging a peaceful transition.

Richardson has also met with Kabila to gain his cooperation both in repatriating Rwandan refugees who had been dispersed by the rebels in eastern Zaire last October when their campaign was first launched and in agreeing to meet with Mobutu. Kabila had previously said he would meet with the Zairean leader only to assume power from him.

Richardson has lobbied hard with Kabila’s main backers, notably the leaders of Rwanda, Uganda, and Angola, all of which have previously suffered from Mobutu’s backing for rebel movements in their countries. On Tuesday, Richardson met with the presidents of Uganda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in Botswana, as well as South African Deputy President Thabo Mbeki in Capetown, before travelling Wednesday for Paris, which, until just the last few weeks, was Mobutu’s staunchest European supporter.

Richardson’s efforts are designed not only to secure an orderly transfer of power without bloodshed in Kinshasa, but also to gain commitments from Kabila that any transitional authority he sets up will include forces that go beyond the AFDL and that it prepare elections to take place “as soon as possible.”

Kabila has been coy about both issues. He has often spoken contemptuously of Tshisekedi, the most prominent opposition leader whose supporters paralysed Kinshasa for two days last month to protest his dismissal as prime minister.

Some human rights and development groups here criticised Richardson for not meeting with Tshisekedi in Kinshasa early last week. “Richardson seems to have contributed to the unarmed opposition’s marginalisation by ignoring it,” said Salih Booker, who heads African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “This could be a major mistake.”

Kabila has also refused to commit himself to early elections. Observers here say he is taking his cues on that score from Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni who held that country’s first vote eight years after taking power and who has still not legalised opposition parties.