POPULATION-SRI LANKA: Success Poses a Baffling Dilemma

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Jan 8 1998 (IPS) - Sri Lanka’s impressive achievement in keeping fertility levels down has thrown up a new problem — a rapidly ageing population that will put more pressure on the government’s welfare budget.

A study published this month by a semi-government research group shows that while half the population was below 25 years in 1991, projections are showing a rise to 28.5 years by the turn of the century, and 45 years by 2041.

The ‘Institute of Policy Studies’ report says, “these trends show how fast the Sri Lankan population is becoming aged, and how Sri Lanka will become one of the rapidly ageing countries in Asia.”

An island in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka is often cited as a model of human development for its success in achieving levels of social progress that surpass most countries of the developing world and some industrial nations.

It has a population growth rate of 1.5 percent compared to the average of 2.3 percent for South Asia, the world’s fastest growing region; its adult literacy rate at 90 percent is one of the highest in the South.

Basic health facilities are available to 93 percent of the island’s population; the crude death rate is 6 per 1,000; life expectancy at 72 is 11 years longer than the South Asian average of 61 years.

Social development has always been given top priority by successive governments in Sri Lanka, whatever the reversals in economic policy and strategy.

Now the study by economist Indralal de Silva says government planners will have to take into consideration a large greying population of those above 60 years while deciding priorities for social welfare.

“The rapid ageing of population will have major socio- economic and political consequences. And these consequences will not be for the aged alone. The child, youth and working age populations too will be affected …,” the report warned.

Sri Lanka’s population, the study estimates, will reach 19.2 million by 2001 and increase only slightly thereafter. The last nationwide census was undertaken in 1981 when the population was estimated at 17 million.

De Silva said that though population growth is driven by three components, fertility, mortality and migration, the new projections concentrate on fertility which is the most critical component. He said a declining fertility rate has been evident since the early 1960s and cited previous studies to show that the rate had decreased below replacement level during 1992-94.

Previous projections, however, exclude Sri Lanka’s northern and eastern regions where Tamil separatist guerrillas are fighting to establish an independent homeland for their minority community.

With more than 50,000 people estimated to have died in the conflict since 1983, the report used anecdotal reports to suggest that marriage and child bearing have become more and more difficult in the two provinces due to demographic and socio- economic factors, partly linked to the ongoing ethnic conflict.

“Available data from other regions of the world that have experienced prolonged internal conflict, for example Lebanon during the 1970s and 1980s, also suggest that internal strife typically has little effect on long term trends in fertility,” the report states.

Sri Lanka, Thailand and China, are among the few developing countries that attained replacement level fertility in the 1990s. In most others, like India, the levels vary greatly in different parts — the fertility rate before 25 years is low only in the southern states of Kerala and Goa as a result of late marriages.

“Given the more developed status of Sri Lanka’s health and educational services and higher rates of female participation in the labour force, it should be expected that Sri Lanka will continue to be at the forefront of future fertility declines in the South Asia region,” the report said.

Sri Lanka’s present mortality levels are relatively low compared to those of its neighbours in the region. The report calculates if it is possible for Sri Lanka to achieve the present mortality rate level of Japan, even by the mid-21st century.

Japan’s life expectancy level has increased sharply in the last two decades, showing an increase of eight years between 1970 and 1993 for females and an increase from 69.3 to 76.3 years during the same period for males.

“Even with a moderate rate of economic development, Sri Lanka could be expected to achieve such a level during the five-year period 2036-41. Moreover, the life expectancy at birth assumed for Sri Lanka for the period 2036-41 is fairly similar to that which is observed in contemporary Japan, which has the highest life expectancy in the world,” the study states.

Since 1991 the proportion of young people has been steadily declining in Sri Lanka. In contrast, the working population between the ages of 15 and 59 years has risen, a trend that is likely to continue until the turn of the century, when the numbers of those retiring and sliding into dependency will swell.