POLITICS-IRAQ: UN Deal Pushes All Sides Back from Brink

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 23 1998 (IPS) - Kofi Annan scored the most important victory of his year-long tenure as U.N. Secretary- General Monday by brokering an agreement on weapons inspections that allowed both Iraq and the United States to claim victory in their four-month standoff.

The United States insisted it had forced Baghdad to bow to the threat of force by agreeing to allow full access to U.N. weapons inspectors. But Baghdad was equally jubilant and Iraqis celebrated in the streets when the diplomatic breakthrough appeared to catch Washington off-guard.

Among other things, the accord, signed Monday morning in Baghdad by the U.N. chief and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz, raised hopes at the United Nations that the push here by Russia, France and many Arab and non-aligned states for a negotiated solution finally has averted a U.S. military strike on Iraq.

Until the secretary-general’s three-hour meeting with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein on Sunday, many U.N. officials believed that the build-up of more than 30,000 U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf region made attack seem inevitable.

The agreement, which Annan will present to the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, already is assured of strong support, according to diplomats here – even though, as recently as this weekend, Washington reserved the right to reject any UN-brokered deal.

U.S. President Bill Clinton, however, conceded Monday after a briefing of his chief national security officials that, pending clarifications by Annan, that the deal reached with Saddam Hussein accomplisheed the weapons inspections goals demanded by Washington.

In particular, Clinton emphasised that, for the first time since agreeing to allow the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) to verify the scrapping of Iraq’s biological, chemical, nuclear and long-range weapons in 1991, Hussein had committed Iraq to provide the inspectors with access to all suspected weapons sites.

“If fully implemented…this commitment will allow UNSCOM to complete its mission,” Clinton said. “The secretary-general has made it clear that Iraq’s commitment applies to all sites anywhere in the country, including eight presidential sites” which had been the focus of the recent standoff.

Nevertheless, the president cautioned, “there are issues that still need to be clarified to our satisfaction, and details that need to be worked out.” Clinton said the United States would wait for Annan to present the agreement to the Security Council on Tuesday before Washington could give its approval to the pact.

U.N. officials remain quiet about the precise terms of the deal, based on plans worked out by France and Russia, and also debated among China, Britain and the United States for several days before Annan entered Baghdad last Friday.

Informed sources, however, confirmed the agreement will allow diplomats from those five countries – the five permanent members of the Security Council – to accompany UNSCOM inspectors to the eight sensitive presidential complexes, but would not restrict the amount of time or the scope of inspections.

Diplomats also indicated, the teams inspecting the presidential sites may be designated under a different name from UNSCOM, in deference to Baghdad’s concerns about the symbols of its sovereignty. Speculation here centred on the role of U.N. Under- Secretary-General and trouble-shooter Lakhdar Brahimi, who, according to some sources, may be placed in charge of the sensitive task of handling the protocol for those inspections.

For Iraq, which vowed never to open up the sites – which include Hussein’s palaces in his home province of Tikrit – the concessions are a significant climbdown. Yet Annan’s three-day visit, and the clear desire by most Security Council member states to avoid military strikes, has allowed Baghdad to present the pact as a diplomatic victory.

“What helped in reaching this agreement…is the good will involved, not the American or the British build-up in the Gulf and not the policy of sabre-rattling,” Aziz argued. “It was diplomacy – wise, balanced United Nations world diplomacy – that enabled us to reach this agrement.”

Washington disputed that claim, however. If the crisis is resolved through the pact, U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said Monday, that would show that “peaceful resolution was permitted because this leader was faced with the prospect of military force.”

Regardless, Iraq stands to win some real political dividends if the accord is accepted by the United States and the rest of the Council. Foreign Secretary Robin Cook of Britain – normally a staunch U.S. ally in enforcing the seven-year embargo against Iraq – said in a radio interview that if Iraq complied with the weapons demands, the lifting of sanctions “could be done in the fairly near future.”

“I would hope that (because of) the way we have discussed this problem, our determination to improve relations, to enhance the work of UNSCOM and accelerate the process, we will be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,” Annan said in Baghdad before leaving for Paris Monday.

Clinton was less optimistic about Baghdad’s compliance, warning that U.S. troops will remain in the Gulf ready to strike if Iraq does not implement the current accord.

“What really matters is Iraq’s compliance, not its stated commitments,” he said.

Still, the United States and Britain are eager for the 15- nation Security Council to issue a resolution formally accepting the terms of the Monday agreement, to “lock in” Baghdad’s commitment to its terms. However, U.N. officials say Council approval of the agreement is not necessary, and France reportedly opposes any plan that could alter the understanding reached in Iraq.