UN-IRAQ: Annan Likely to Head for Baghdad

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 11 1998 (IPS) - U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan probably will make a flying trip to Baghdad within a week in a final push to end the standoff over the operations of U.N. weapons inspectors, according to officials here.

After days of diplomatic wrangling amid a growing clamour for Annan’s direct involvement, the secretary-general now is inclined to make the trip to meet Iraqi President Saddam Hussein – but only if Iraq seems ready to strike a deal, U.N. officials said Wednesday.

“First he (Annan) will have to make sure that there is a real chance that the crisis can be resolved diplomatically,” said one official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But the window of opportunity to go is this week, and I think he will do it.”

Annan met ambassadors of the veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council – Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States – on Wednesday. But the five nations remain divided on how far to compromise on Iraq’s refusal to allow the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM), which monitors its weapons of mass destruction, cannot inspect some 60 “presidential and sovereign sites.”

Britain and the United States have demanded full access to the weapons inspectors, while France, Russia and China have all searched for a way to continue inspections without embarrassing Baghdad. As long as that rift in the Council persists, it may be difficult for that body to send a clear signal to Annan so that he could negotiate a settlement with Hussein, officials said.

Some world leaders, however, urged the U.N. chief to make the trip even without full Security Council backing for a negotiated solution.

Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi and Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who is visiting Rome, made a joint plea for Annan’s direct involvement, said U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard. At least six of the Council’s 15 member states have asked for Annan to play an active role in mediating the crisis, with a formal written request coming from one country, Costa Rica.

Russian Ambassador Sergey Lavrov contended that Iraq has agreed, in negotiations conducted by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Viktor Posuvalyuk, to open up most of the 60 sites to UNSCOM. Baghdad has made an exception in the case of eight presidential complexes – but even with those sites, Lavrov said, the Iraqis are willing to allow inspection teams outside of UNSCOM control to visit.

“Iraq is ready to provide access to the sites,” Lavrov argued. “We believe the substance of the issue is addressed properly.”

The Iraqi proposal, however, is not acceptable to the United States, whose U.N. ambassador, Bill Richardson, countered that it fell short of “full, unfettered access” for UNSCOM inspectors.

The latest offer announced by Baghdad would allow inspectors and diplomats from several Council member states, operating under U.N. authority, to visit the eight sites within a 60-day period. Those officials, however, would have to be separate from the UNSCOM teams – which would nevertheless be allowed to visit the other ‘sensitive’ sites.

U.S. and British diplomats declared Iraq’s conditions were an unacceptable weakening of UNSCOM which, in recent months, repeatedly has been blocked from sites believed to contain information about past or current Iraqi biological weapons programmes. But France cautiously praised the deal as “a step forward,” while China and Russia urged further discussion and repeated their opposition to a military solution to the standoff.

Annan in recent days has taken a middle position, seeking a less conditional offer of access from Iraq while calling for a diplomatic solution that would work “without the humiliation of the (Iraqi) regime.”

“To move forward, everyone has to show some flexibility,” he said. “If we maintain fundamentalist or purist positions all around, we will not find a solution.”

An acceptable compromise, however, appeared difficult to find. With U.S. troop strength in the Persian Gulf increasing daily, Washington is unlikely to offer any major face-saving concessions to Saddam’s government, observers opined.

“There is still time for a diplomatic solution, but the lower half of the hourglass is filling rapidly with sand,” U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright declared Tuesday. For its part, Iraq in recent days has offered an increasing amount of access to the U.N. inspectors, but stopped short of agreeing to the key demand of UNSCOM access to the eight sites without any deadline for inspections.

U.N. officials cautioned that Annan will not risk travelling only to return empty-handed, as his predecessor, Javier Perez de Cuellar, did shortly before the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

Yet a military option may prove no easier than diplomacy, observes believe. The United States has found little support in the Arab world for renewed air strikes, with only Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain offering to help station U.S. troops for a possible attack. Former Gulf War allies, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, have been reluctant to provide bases for U.S. forces.

Nor is the Security Council ready to authorise military strikes by finding Iraq “in material breach” of the 1991 cease-fire resolutions.

An effort by Washington and London to gain Council approval for a resolution making that determination has foundered in recent days. One official, asked about the resolution’s chances for Council acceptance, responded, “Don’t hold your breath.”