POPULATION: Six Billion People by Mid-1999

By Thalif Deen Reprint | | Print |

Thalif Deen

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 9 1998 (IPS) - The United Nations predicts the world’s population will top the six billion mark by the middle of next year.

Reaching this landmark would be “an extraordinary achievement for humanity,” Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA), said Thursday.

She said that no era in history had sustained population growth so rapidly while, at the same time, improving health and nutritional standards for most of the world’s people. Fertility and family size , meanwhile, had fallen at a record rate.

“The momentum of population growth has slowed, is slowing and will slow still further,” Sadik said. “We have something to celebrate.”

UNFPA predicted that June 16 1999 would be “The Day of Six Billion” symbolising the moment when the population of the world passed the six billion mark.

Joseph Chamie, Director, U.N. Population Division, said that while June 16 is not the exact date, it was chosen as a reasonable and suitable day to mark the occasion. “While it is almost impossible to determine precisely when the world will pass that threshold, we do project that world population is likely to pass the six billion mark sometime during the middle of 1999,” he said.

The annual “World Population Day” is celebrated on July 11, first observed in 1987 when the world’s population reached five billion. The current world population is estimated at about 5.9 billion and, according to U.N. projections, increases by nearly three persons every second accounting for 220,000 every day or 81 million every year.

The United Nations says that it took all of time until 1800 for the population to reach the one billion level. But it took only until 1930 to add another one billion.

World population reached three billion in 1960 and, 14 years later, reached four billion in 1974. The five billion mark came up in a 13-year period until 1987.

Sadik said the eventual size of the world’s population will depend on the choices people make over the next 10 years. “While rapid population growth is a major global concern, our first concern should be the lives of millions of people who are impoverished both materially and spiritually because they cannot exercise their reproductie rights,” she said.

“If we respond to individual reproductive health needs, the global need for slower and more balanced population growth will largely take care of itself,” Sadik added.

She pointed out that if women can choose, they will have fewer children than their mothers did. Families will be smaller and population growth slower – “that is the lesson of the last 30 years.”

At the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1974, there was unanimous agreement on reproductive health being a basic human right. The ICPD agreed that everyone has the right to choose the size and space of his or her family. If they can exercise their right to choose, then the world will be on its way to slower and more balance population growth.

According to long-term U.N. projections released early this year, population growth will continue in all major areas except Europe.

The population of Africa will nearly quadruple over the 155- year period – increasing from 0.7 billion persons in 1995 to 2.8 billion in 2150. Growth is also projected for Asia, with China growing from 1.2 billion persons to 1.6 billion, India from 0.9 billion persons to 1.7 billion, and the rest of Asia from 1.3 billion persons to 2.8 billion. The population of Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to rise from 477 million persons in 1995 to 916 million in 2150.

The population in North America is expected to increase to 414 million by 2150, rising from 297 million in 1995. Oceania is expected to increase from 28 million to 51 million.

Europe is the only major area whose population is projected to decline over time. In 1995, Europe’s population stood at 728 million. By 2150, it is projected to fall to 595 million persons – a decline of 18 percent over 155 years.

Chamie said that one has to be wary about “myths”relating to population. One of the most common is about fertility being high among Catholics because the Church opposes abortion and holds that “family planning” is a euphemism for abortion.

Chamie pointed out that the world’s lowest fertility rates were in two Catholic countries: Italy and Spain. The fertility rates were so low (about 1.2 or 1.3 percent), that it was difficult for the demographers there to imagine it bouncing back to replacement.

He cited another “myth” that Muslim countries could not have low fertility. However, fertility rates were coming down in two predominantly Islamic nations: Bangladesh and Turkey, he said.