POLITICS-IRAQ: Diplomatic Breakthrough Reshuffles Political Deck

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Nov 14 1998 (IPS) - Iraq announced Saturday it would allow U.N weapons inspections to resume without conditions and, while apparently averting a U.S. military attack, seized the political initiative with the United Nations.

The announcement from Baghdad that U.N. inspectors – who left for Bahrain Wednesday – would be allowed back in to perform inspections after more than three months of obstructions came just 24 hours after the U.N. Security Council promised that, in exchange for Iraq’s cooperation, the Council would review all UN- Iraqi concerns.

Significantly, Iraq had rejected that offer just two weeks ago and cut off all cooperation with the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) which must verify the destruction of Iraq’s chemical, biological and long-range missile weapons.

But on Friday, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein signalled he was willing to accept a negotiated solution – and on Saturday, Iraq sent a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan essentially accepting the terms it had rejected two weeks earlier.

Responding to reporters Saturday about whether the Iraqi offer meets U.N. demands, Annan said, “In my opinion, it does.” The 15- nation Security Council also is expected to accept Iraq’s resumption of access, diplomats said.

Political analysts pointed to two main reasons for the dramatic change in Iraqui’s posture.

The U.S. troop buildup in the Persian Gulf appeared a more credible threat than previous military manouevres last winter and this time, the silence of Iraq’s traditional allies – Russia, France and Arab nations especially – showed how isolated Baghdad had become in its standoff with the United States.

Russia did not send diplomats to help mediate the crisis, as they did when Iraq threw out UNSCOM inspectors briefly last winter; Annan, whose diplomacy in February ended the earlier threat, declined to go to Baghdad unless Iraq first said it would comply with the inspections.

Still Iraq’s allies did quietly push for a peaceful solution by encouraging a “comprehensive review” which would take account of all Iraq’s cooperation – including the desire by many nations to phase out the eight-year-old sanctions against Baghdad.

Russia, China and France held a meeting at the United Nations on Friday after which the three nations pointedly threw their weight behind sending a letter to Iraq that reiterated the promise of holding the review if Iraq backed down this time.

For the United States, which insisted that Iraq allow unconditional inspections, that is a reasonably cheap price to avert a crisis. Washington already has stated in the Security Council, where it holds veto power, that it would not allow for the lifting of sanctions simply if Iraq is deemed to have scrapped many of its worst weapons at the comprehensive review.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright pointed to other conditions, including an accounting of the fate of Kuwaitis missing after the 1990 Iraqi invasion, before sanctions would be lifted.

Nevertheless, the comprehensive review offered the best chance in eight years for Iraq to see the last of the embargo, which former U.N. humanitarian coordinator Denis Halliday estimated had led to the deaths from malnourishment and illness of some 6,000 Iraqis every month.

Although the United States clearly held the upper hand during this recent crisis – in no small part because it had won credit for not attacking Iraq when the crisis began in August – Iraq’s climbdown may actually embolden its Security Council defenders during a comprehensive review.

This, in turn, could allow Baghdad to turn this latest in a series of political loses into a victory.

Analats noted, however, this would depend on whether this is the last of Iraq’s efforts to undermine or expel UNSCOM, or simply the latest in a series of crises. At least this time, Baghdad understood that international patience with the sequence of standoffs was now wearing thin.