POLITICS-KOSOVO: New Fighting Complicates Peace Process

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric-Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Feb 22 1999 (IPS) - A new burst of fighting in Kosovo and an unwillingness by the Serbs and the region’s pro-independence Albanians to agree on a peace deal set the stage for a complex decision Tuesday by the “contact group” dealing with the crisis.

The contact group – Russia, Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the United States – had given the Serbian government and representatives of the Kosovar separatist movement until 3 p.m. (1400GMT) Tuesday to come to an agreement in Rambouillet, France, on a three-year autonomy deal for the troubled Serbian province.

Yet talks at the weekend – and the extension of a previous deadline to allow for more meetings in Rambouillet Monday – did little to persuade the Albanian majority of Kosovo that the deal on the table was in their interests.

Without the Kosovars’ support, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright conceded, “there will be no bombing of Serbia”, as Washington had threatened when it had deemed Belgrade to be the main force obstructing a deal. The Serbs had refused to agree to any NATO ground troops entering Kosovo to keep the peace.

Yet Monday’s events pinned just as much of the blame for the current deadlock on the Kosovars, who have rejected the autonomy plan unless it includes a referendum for independence at the end of the three-year period.

Ironically, the Kosovars’ reluctance to sign on placed the Serbian government led by President Milan Milutinovic in a stronger position, since Belgrade has accepted the basic principle of autonomy.

Serbia still faced a threat of attack from North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces, however, because it rejected the plan’s requirement that some 28,000 NATO troops – including perhaps 4,000 U.S. troops – monitor the agreement.

“We are for the political agreement … (but) for an agreement, we have to have two,” Milutinovic said Monday.

In addition to the Kosovars’ holdout, the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army (or UCK) reportedly attacked a convoy of 10 Serb trucks Monday in the northern region of Vucitrn, sharply escalating military tensions. Yugoslav officials complained about the attack to U.N. officials, including Security Council President Robert Fowler of Canada.

Despite round-the-clock negotiations, most of the diplomats present at Rambouillet voiced little hope that an agreement acceptable to both sides would be clinched by the Tuesday deadline. “It is hard to be optimistic,” U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said.

At the same time, the Kosovars’ stance and strong statements from Russian officials warning against any NATO air strikes dimmed prospects that Serbia will face any bombing if it does not immediately accede to the plan for NATO troop presence.

The temperature in the official Serbian media, engaged in the campaign against any foreign troops presence, gradually has risen even as the NATO plan has foundered.

The usually tight-lipped Yugoslav Army (VJ) – which last year took a back seat to Serbian police forces in the Kosovo fighting – for the first time has reacted openly to Kosovo crisis.

General Dragoljub Ojdanic, recently appointed Army chief of staff said Sunday evening that “the defence of Kosovo was of utmost national interest”, praising the government for all it did to resolve the situation through peaceful means.

“If world powers try to impose on us unacceptable conditions…foreign troops in our territory or other things, then we really have no other choice but to respond to force by force,” he said, in statements aired repeatedly Monday. “The defence of Kosovo has no price. If we lose Kosovo, we’ll lose Serbia, Yugoslavia and our freedom which should be sacred to us.”

Ojdanic was appointed to the post last November, replacing Momcilo Perisic, who was against confrontation with NATO and larger VJ involvement in Kosovo crisis. Ojdanic said the primary task of VJ was “combat readiness and readiness to defend Kosovo at all costs”.

Meanwhile, in a statement from the Second Army and Navy command, stationed in Montenegro, the VJ strongly condemned Montenegrin government for its decision last weekend not to allow the territory of the republic to be used by the army in case of NATO air strikes.

Montenegro is a tiny partner of Serbia in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and its leadership has pursued Western- oriented reform policies, in contrast to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s approach.

The Second Army and Navy command warned Montenegro that the decision of its government was “contrary to the constitution of FRY, which specifies that the defence of Yugoslavia is a federal issue … Such a decision…could negatively affect the defence ability of FRY and the VJ combat readiness.”

The statement added that the Second Army and Navy “would continue to defend the country and its sovereignty”.

Serbian officials maintained they would resist any effort to chip away at the country’s sovereignty, including any talk of independence for Kosovo, 90 percent of whose population is ethnically Albanian.

As a result, Belgrade’s acceptance of autonomy has been tempered by its rejection of NATO troops, without whom Albright warned the deal would be “only a piece of paper”.

Yet, as many analysts warn, the fact that Belgrade has remained firm against any NATO troops deployment did not mean that the proposal would be rejected in the end, as it is a known fact that the final decision rested with one man: Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

“Once again Milosevic holds the ultimate power over war and peace in the Balkans,” said a Western diplomat in Belgrade, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “And he is a cool player with a well-developed instinct for survival.”

As in previous crises, Milosevic did not bother to address the public himself. Despite concern among ordinary people that they should know what to expect in case NATO comes into the country, or resorts to air strikes, Milosevic has remained quiet.

“This is the way to create charisma – the idea of being untouchable, above all the ordinary people,” argued Snjezana Milivojevic, assistant professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences. “He (Milosevic) does not bother to come to parliament and address the members of Parliament, so why change his non-communicative manner now?”