POLITICS-ARGENTINA: President-Elect Greeted by Mercosur Partners

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava, Raúl Ronzoni and Gustavo González

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 26 1999 (IPS) - The victory of Fernando de la Rúa in Sunday’s elections in Argentina was greeted as a positive development by that country’s partners in the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade bloc.

Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso praised De la Rúa’s “broad, positive and balanced vision” of the Mercosur – comprised of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, a bloc that accounts for 80 percent of South America’s combined gross domestic product (GDP).

The leading candidates for Uruguay’s Oct 31 presidential elections attempted, meanwhile, to capitalise on De la Rúa’s win.

And in Chile – which has associate status in Mercosur – De la Rúa’s triumph is expected to facilitate even closer ties between the two countries in the case of victory for the front-runner for the Dec 12 presidential elections there, Socialist Ricardo Lagos, the centre-left ruling ‘Concertación por la Democracia’ (Coalition for Democracy) candidate.

Cardoso was the first president to congratulate De la Rúa Sunday, and Brazil will be the first country to be visited by the president-elect.

The Cardoso administration sees the Dec 10 change of government in Argentina as an indispensable step towards defusing tension that has flared up between the two countries over a series of trade disputes in the past few months.

Argentina’s decision to slap quotas on Brazilian imports, adopt anti-dumping measures, and delay the issuing of certificates of quality for textiles, steel, footwear and paper from Brazil triggered a crisis that – both sides admit – requires in-depth solutions, above and beyond any specific agreements.

Prior to the elections in Argentina, negotiators in Brazil had reached the conclusion that there was no way the government of the Justice (Peronist) Party’s Carlos Menem, on its way out, would be able to withstand the pressure from Argentinian industrialists demanding protectionist measures.

But Brazil also acknowledges the imbalances in trade within the bloc sparked by the crash of the local currency, the real, since January, as well as the need to effectively bring the macroeconomic policies of Mercosur members into line – a task that has been continually put off since the bloc’s creation in 1991.

While Cardoso’s phone call to De la Rúa was a matter of protocol, it served to highlight the Brazilian government’s interest in reestablishing a spirit of cooperation between the two biggest Mercosur partners, and in giving a new impetus to efforts towards integration.

Although there were no explicit expressions in favour of De la Rúa, the candidate of Argentina’s opposition Alliance – comprised of the centrist Radical Civic Union (UCR) and the centre-left ‘Frente País Solidario’ (Front for a Country with Solidarity – Frepaso) – the Cardoso administration’s preference for the now- president-elect was clear.

Several economists and politicians who took part in the bilateral dialogue initiated in 1985 by then presidents Raúl Alfonsín (1983-89) of Argentina – also of the UCR – and José Sarney of Brazil (1985-90), will now return to power.

In Mercosur, the idea of “re-launching” the bloc, by rescuing abandoned aspects of the original project – ranging from macroeconomic coordination to integration in areas like services, government procurement and the labour market – is gaining strength.

Former president Sarney, in the Senate today, has recently been arguing that the future of the bloc depends on a “reformulation” of the underlying concepts, and on putting the construction of a common market back on the agenda.

According to Sarney, the current tension and trade disputes cropped up when the bloc got off course, and began to focus exclusively on integration in trade policy.

Other analysts point out that any solution to the conflicts depends on the political power of governments within the bloc to negotiate with their partners, and with internal sectors affected by integration.

They stress that recently elected governments, like those of Argentina, and of Uruguay within a few months, or administrations with at least three years left like the government of Cardoso, are in a good position to give a fresh boost to the Mercosur integration process.

In Uruguay, the bloc’s smallest member, President Julio María Sanguinetti phoned De la Rúa – who he described as “an old friend” – Sunday to congratulate him.

De la Rúa met last week in Buenos Aires with the candidate of the ruling Colorado Party for the Oct 31 presidential elections in Uruguay, Jorge Batlle, who is running a distant second in the polls behind Tabaré Vázquez, the candidate of the centre-left Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio (Progressive Meeting-Broad Front – EP-FA).

Vázquez, expected to win the first round of elections, also stands a real chance of triumph in the Nov 28 runoff, which will likely be between the Colorado and EP-FA candidates, according to opinion polls.

(The National Party candidate, former president Luis Alberto Lacalle, is running third in the polls).

With five days to go to the first round of voting, Batlle and Vázquez sought to capitalise on De la Rúa’s triumph.

In his meeting with the president-elect Monday, the image Vázquez projected was that of a winner preparing to govern and to continue the dialogue with his opposite number in Argentina.

Vázquez arranged for the chief economic advisers of the EP-FA to meet with De la Rúa’s advisers after next Sunday’s elections in Uruguay.

After meeting with Vázquez, a socialist, Argentina’s vice- president-elect Carlos Alvarez of Frepaso said “there is a common agenda in Latin America, and I believe that we, along with [Chilean presidential candidate Ricardo] Lagos and Tabaré [Vázquez], interpret it in a similar manner.

“I am talking about how to address the problems of growth, equality, social equity and greater solidarity.”

Colorado Party candidate Batlle, meanwhile, interpreted De la Rúa’s victory in a different light, describing it as “the triumph of democracy, of [economic] liberal ideals….the triumph of a man who has a long political career behind him and who represents that great party,” the UCR.

According to Batlle, Uruguayan voters will be choosing next Sunday between his party’s free-market economics and a Marxist model which he says the EP-FA – a coalition of Socialists, Communists, Christian Democrats, left-leaning independents and former Tupamaro guerrillas – represents.

In Chile, most analysts concur that the triumph of the opposition Alliance in Argentina favours Socialist candidate Lagos’ prospects for the Dec 12 dispute with right-wing candidate Joaquín Lavín, and for the possible Jan 16 runoff.

Lagos flew to Buenos Aires Sunday, where he accompanied De la Rúa in his victory celebration. Analysts say the ruling coalition candidate is not only identified now with the triumphant image of Argentina’s president-elect, but is also seen as representing the best chances for continuing to improve relations with Argentina.

In 1991, Menem and then Chilean president Patricio Aylwin (1990- 94) launched an all-out offensive to resolve long-standing border disputes and work towards physical and commercial integration.

The diplomatic efforts continued apace under President Eduardo Frei, and joint military maneuvres were even held – something unheard of two decades ago, when the two countries narrowly avoided going to war over a territorial dispute.

If Lagos becomes president, Chile and Argentina could join together in stressing closer ties between Mercosur and the European Union, in a shift from the priority put by Argentinian President Carlos Menem on relations with the United States.

De la Rúa will also modify Menem’s policy supporting the Frei administration in Chile’s conflict with Spain and Great Britain over the arrest in London of former Chilean dictator (1973-90) Augusto Pinochet. The president-elect has questioned Menem’s backing of Frei’s argument opposing Pinochet’s extradition to stand trial on charges of torture in Spain.