POLITICS: Russian Forces Face A Stalemate In Chechnya

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Vadim Soloviov*

MOSCOW, May 11 2000 (IPS) - — Although it has managed to battle its way across Chechnya and drive the armed separatists deep into the mountains, Russian forces increasingly find themselves frustrated in their inability to bring the fighting to a close. The danger now is that, unless Moscow changes its policies, the conflict could go on indefinitely.

Despite the fact that much of the rebellious republic is under the control of federal troops, intense fighting continues in several regions and Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties.

The Russian command is beefing up its forces to deal with the continued fighting. The 42nd Motorised Rifle Division will be permanently deployed around Grozny, virtually isolating the capital from the rest of the republic. Nine Interior Ministry battalions will operate in close co-operation with the Army to seal off rebel strongholds in the mountains from the rest of the republic. Finally, border guards will control the republic’s borders with neighbouring Georgia, Dagestan and Ingushetia.

The military is, in effect, throwing its last remaining resources at the conflict in Chechnya. Because it lacks enough commanders with combat experience, the Russian command has been forced to transfer about 100 officers from the 201st Division in Tadjikistan to Chechnya.

Federal forces have three main objectives in Chechnya. The first is to actively hunt down the remaining rebels and destroy their bases and supply routes. As Gen. Valerii Manilov, First Deputy of the Chief of the General Staff, said recently, “all forces and means will be used for that purpose.” Its second goal, Gen. Manilov said, is to find and eliminate rebels still living in areas controlled by federal forces. And the third is to prevent acts of terrorism in the breakaway republic.

Having all three branches of the security force deployed in Chechnya will make it easier for any one of them to avoid blame in case of heavy losses or major defeats. And it appears that such losses will continue. Federal forces have sustained heavy casualties after being ambushed by rebel fighters in several recent incidents.

The General Staff says it has successfully accomplished its main mission. It says it has destroyed the rebels’ command-and-control structure, as well as their supply system and infrastructure. It says it has cut off the rebels’ access to foreign supplies.

But if that’s the case, many in Moscow wonder why federal troops are still being killed in ambushes. Why have the rebels been able to impose their tactics on the federal troops, which nominally are in control of the region? Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

The same General Staff that claims victory also admits that the extremists remain a significant force. Russia estimates that there are about 2, 500 rebels hiding in the mountains, with another 1, 000 dispersed among the general population. Rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov claims a force of about 26,000. A more realistic estimate puts the number at around 15,000.

For Russian forces in Chechnya, the problem now is that they are not only opposed by armed opponents but also by a substantial portion of the general population. Gen. Manilov said he believes as much as 10 to 15 percent of the people there, especially in southern regions, pose a security threat. This contrasts sharply with official statements about the military’s full control over Chechen territory.

Neither the Defence Department nor the Interior Ministry have come up with any suggestions on how they might change their current strategies to deal with this continued threat.

Some outside the government have voiced concerns about the current strategy. Serguei Stepashin, the former head of the Federal Security Service, warns that the Interior Ministry’s 200,000 troops are not prepared to conduct the type of counter-terrorist operation planned for Chechnya. Instead, he recommends Russia’s military look at the experiences of other nations, such as Israel, to see what type of force is needed to maintain control in the region.

Without a significant change in Russian tactics and policies, the nation faces a never-ending conflict in Chechnya. But maybe this should come as no surprise: after all, it took the KGB nearly 25 years after the end of World War II to hunt down and capture the last Chechen rebel of that era.