//CORRECTED REPEAT//POLITICS-YUGOSLAVIA: Election Results Send Mixed Signals

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Analysis Vesna Peric Zimonjic

PODGORICA, MONTENEGRO, Jun 14 2000 (IPS) - President Milo Djukanovic may struggle to achieve his dream of an independent Montenegro judging by the results of the local elections held over the weekend.

Political analysts say the local elections, held in Montenegrin towns of Podgorica and Herceg Novi on Sunday, were broadly viewed as a litmus test for the reform-minded Djukanovic.

They say the 38 year-old president, who took office in 1998, failed to obtain the resounding endorsement he sought.

“For Djukanovic the (results are) a strong signal that he should take into account – the mood of the voters in favour of independence is not as visible as he thought,” says Ilija Vujacic, a lecturer with the Belgrade Political Science Facility.

“Local elections in Podgorica and Herceg Novi ended in a draw,” says Srdjan Darmanovic, political analyst with the Podgorica Centre for Democratisation.

“Nothing spectacular happened in Montenegro, so both sides (pro and anti Milosevic) can say they won. Djukanovic won the important capital, but his adversaries did win the leading and very important tourist centre of Herceg Novi,” Darmanovic added.

Djukanovic’s coalition ‘To Live Better’, that rules the tiny republic of Montenegro, won 28 out of 54 seats in the capital’s city council, the Municipal Electoral Commission said on Monday.

At the same time, allies of Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic, the coalition ‘Yugoslavia – Momir Bulatovic’, won the landslide victory in Herceg Novi with 19 out of 35 seats in the municipal government.

Local elections took 112,000 voters in Podgorica and 22,000 in Herceg Novi to the polling stations, a third of electorate of Montenegro.

Montenegro, with its population of 650.000 makes up the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) along with its big sister, Serbia which has a population of 7.5 million.

Montenegrins and Serbs share the same Orthodox religion and history and many of them are unable to tell what the difference is between the two nations. Montenegro borders Croatia and Bosnia and Djukanovic has been keen to re-establish good relations with both.

Under Djukanovic, Montenegro is slowly leaving the orbit of Belgrade and has distanced itself from the anti-West confrontation politics of Yugolav President, Slobodan Milosevic.

Montenegro, which has developed close co-operation with the West, recently introduced a market economy and a reconciliation policy with the neighbouring countries of the former Yugoslav federation, that fell apart in bloody wars in the early 90s.

Djukanovic has promised a referendum on the independence of Montenegro in the near future, if the status of Serbia, as a pariah state, made democratisation and economic development of his republic impossible within FRY.

“Local elections in Podgorica and Herceg Novi can be viewed as a kind of small referendum aimed to test whatever Djukanovic has done and promised since 1998,” says Vujacic.

“The results showed that the stable division of the voting body still exists, like in the parliamentary and presidential elections two years ago,” he adds.

Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the pillar of the coalition ‘To Live Better’, and Djukanovic himself, won a tight victory in those elections, with literally a few hundreds of votes in their favour.

Their main competitors were the same Belgrade-backed party, Socialist People’s Party, and its leader Momir Bulatovic.

For months now, the Yugoslav Army (VJ), loyal to Milosevic, threatened to prevent “any secession of Montenegro”.

Closest aides of Milosevic do not hesitate to accuse Montenegro of being a “lackey of the West”, that has sold “national interest for Western money”.

Western officials have repeatedly warned Milosevic, indicted for war crimes in Kosovo, to refrain from any attempt to topple the Montenegrin leadership.

VJ chief of staff, General Nebojsa Pavkovic, said on Saturday that “VJ will not allow the scenario of former Yugoslavia to be repeated”.

Addressing a rally in central Serbia, dedicated to the anniversary of the end of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO, air strikes, Pavkovic said that “the destructive forces in our country, helped by the foreign factor, are trying to break its unity…separatist forces are trying to destabilise relations between our two republics (Serbia and Montenegro).”

“One should not idealise the situation in Montenegro,” says Ljiljana Bacevic, researcher with the Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences.

“Those Montenegrins who voted for Djukanovic support his opposition of the regime in Belgrade. That is a mere smokescreen. Once the situation stabilises in Serbia, meaning hypothetically that the opposition comes in power, people in Montenegro will have to think about the real economic situation they live in. And that will be the real test for Djukanovic,” she told IPS.

Despite all the promises, Djukanovic has not succeeded in attracting many investors into the tiny republic. When the privatisation process started two years ago, thousands of Montenegrins lost their jobs.

Official statistics put the number of employed at 114,000 and the unemployment rate at 25 percent. Independent economists in Podgorica put the unemployment at 40 percent and say that 100,000 people lost their jobs in the privatisation process.

Apart from tourism, several breweries and smaller factories, the Montenegrin economy is at standstill. Critics say foreign aid helps Djukanovic keep social peace with regular salaries for those who are paid from the state budget, together with pensioners.