POLITICS-JAPAN: Premier’s Trip to South Asia to Mend Ties

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Aug 14 2000 (IPS) - Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s trip to South Asia this weekend is a diplomatic overture aimed at rekindling ties that have lagged behind since India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998, analysts here say.

Mori will leave first for Bangladesh, then Pakistan, India and Nepal in a week-long visit starting Aug. 19.

The first trip to South Asia by a Japanese leader in a decade, Mori’s visit seeks to reinforce Tokyo’s commitment to the region’s economic development and its security and stability, according to Japan’s foreign ministry.

Apart from being the major aid donor to South Asian countries, Japan is also the only donor nation that makes financial contributions to support the activities of the subregion’s forum, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Following traditional diplomacy, foreign ministry officials said Mori will propose a resumption of some aid to India and Pakistan if they promise not to conduct new nuclear tests.

“The freeze on new aid will remain,” said an official, on condition of anonymity.

Japan had imposed sanctions on both India and Pakistan after they conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in May 1998.

But amid views that its economic sanctions have not pushed the two countries enough to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Tokyo appears to be looking for others ways to give assistance without appearing to openly flout its policy on economic aid and the sanctions it imposed.

The same official said Mori will however be proposing additional funds for ongoing projects such as the construction of power plants, roads and subways.

The new funds will be offered if the two countries show a positive attitude toward nuclear non-proliferation, such as promising to adhere to a moratorium on nuclear testing or to work toward building a consensus in their respective countries to sign the CTBT, he explained.

The CTBT, adopted at the U.N. General Assembly in September 1996, comes into effect only after all 44 declared and potential nuclear nations ratify it.

India, Pakistan and North Korea have not signed the test ban treaty. China, the second top recipient of Japanese aid after Indonesia, has signed but has yet to ratify the CTBT.

After the 1998 nuclear tests, Japan froze new grants and yen loans other than for humanitarian purposes to Pakistan and India.

In 1998, Japan gave 115 million U.S. dollars in loans to India and 3.5 million dollars in grants. To Pakistan, it gave 5.6 million dollars in loans and 27 million dollars in grants. Tokyo gave no new loans in 1999, after it imposed sanctions.

Tokyo’s official development assistance (ODA) charter prevents the disbursement of official aid to nations pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.

This policy stems from the fact that Japan is the only country that suffered atomic bomb attacks, when U.S. warplanes attacked Nagasaki and Hiroshima 55 years ago this August.

In response to public outcry, Tokyo harshly criticised the nuclear tests and has since joined other countries in pressing New Delhi and Islamabad to join the CTBT.

But so far, this has been to no avail.

Observers point out that while Mori will continue to press Pakistan and India during his visit, his discussion of new loans in both countries illustrates the domestic opinion that Japan’s sanctions have not achieved their purpose.

“Officials now acknowledge that while sanctions have hurt the local economies, the policy has not helped to bring the CTBT closer to India and Pakistan,” said Kyoko Inoue, an economist at the Tokyo-based Institute of Developing Economies.

As a result, analysts contend that Japan is ready to move ahead with its assistance programme. Yet mindful of the strongly pacifist public in Japan, Tokyo’s moves will be made slowly.

A local press report in June quoted government sources as saying Tokyo is considering resuming large-scale economic aid to India — but this was denied stiffly by the foreign ministry.

The report by the English-language daily ‘Japan Times’ explained that in fact, there is growing pressure from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to completely lift economic sanctions against India.

Taro Nakayama, former foreign minister and chairman of LDP foreign policy research council, was quoted by the newspaper as arguing that sanctions have severely damaged ties with India and that Japan’s anti-nuclear stance has been acknowledged by New Delhi.

To get around the ODA charter, analysts expect Mori to propose new low-interest yen loans of up 70 billion yen (700 million U.S. dollars) to help finance a subway project in New Delhi and a power project in the south-eastern province of Andhra Pradesh.

These loans will be an extension to the first phase of the projects, started with Japanese aid in 1996 before economic sanctions were imposed. Officials here insist new funds will be tied to India’s commitments to sign CTBT.

India’s booming information technology market is another reason that contributed to the changing of Japan’s official attitude — Japanese businessman have aired their concerns about not wanting to be left out of this growing market.

Mori is expected to outline bilateral cooperation in this sphere during his stop in Bangalore, the heart of India’s IT industry.

Hisaya Oda, an analyst on Pakistani affairs, says Mori’s visit to Islamabad will also focus on re-enforcing bilateral ties. But he adds that Tokyo’s outlook on Pakistan has been dampened by its economic and security woes, so that India appears to be a much more attractive market.

“Pakistan is badly in need to Japanese aid for its economic development which Japan is well aware of,” said Oda. He contends that a resumption of full-scale aid will not be pledged during the visit but “there will be a pledge to review resumption”.

In comparison to India and Pakistan, Mori’s stopovers in Nepal and Bangladesh are expected to produce clear pledges of Japan’s support for their economic development. In Bangladesh, Mori is expected to provide 160 million U.S. dollars in grants.

Development experts however are disappointed with Mori’s agenda in South Asia, pointing out that he will not bring concrete proposals on debt relief.

Professor Kazu Sumi of Niigata University says debt servicing is a detriment to poverty alleviation in South Asian countries.

Thus, he says, Mori’s visit should be marked with programmes for relief, either through grants or outright write-offs for countries such as Bangladesh.

For example, Pakistan’s official debt to Japan amounted to 822 million dollars in 1999. Japan’s ODA in humanitarian aid for the same year was around 150 million dollars, according to the foreign ministry.

“I really don’t know why Mori is going unless there is some pledge on debt relief, a major concern for poor people in those countries,” Sumi explained.