POLITICS-JAPAN: Cracks Appear in Formerly Formidable Party

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Dec 3 2000 (IPS) - Factionalism and ageing leaders in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have compromised the future of the powerful political party that led Japan from the ashes of World War II to become the world’s second richest economy, say political analysts here.

But they say this is far from being a disastrous development as far as Japanese politics is concerned. Indeed, say analysts, a disintegrating LDP may be welcome as public discontent over current policies grows.

“The public will be happy to see a change such as a victory for the Democrats,” says economist Keisuke Omura of the Institute of Developing Economies, a quasi-governmental research organisation.

By “democrats”, Omura means the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP), which is composed mostly of younger politicians who bolted the LDP a decade ago in search of fresher approaches to the country’s problems.

These days, the party, which campaigned for higher budgets for welfare, cutting state spending by reducing public works projects and reigning in the power of bureaucrats, is posing a formidable challenge to the LDP.

Analysts even believe that when the next Upper House elections are held in July, what used to be thought of as impossible would happen — the LDP would be facing a strong opposition that in turn would usher in a refreshing change in Japan.

Political commentator Ryoko Ozawa says one telltale sign of the LDP’s weakening clout is the plunge in public support for current Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who now has a support rating of 18 percent.

The rate was taken soon after Mori managed to survive a humiliating no-confidence vote in the Japanese Diet in late November.

Mori is now expected to step down early next year. Says Ozawa: “Mori is on his way out. His departure could very well spell the end of the LDP as well.”

Experts say the Premier’s dismal approval rating has eroded support as well for Mori’s traditional partners, who are members of the largest faction in the LDP that voted for him the Diet.

Apparently, Mori survived the call for his ouster — even within his own party — because of support from the political bigwigs who are mostly elderly LDP politicians.

But Mori’s performance has made LDP leaders worried about their own survival. In truth, during the latest general LDP meeting, Mori was told by his chief supporter, the party’s secretary general, Hiromu Nonaka, to work harder and build up the LDP before the next Upper House polls are held.

Observers, though, say the LDP politicians themselves are to blame for their party’s decline. They say the incessant factionalism within the LDP will only make Mori fail another crucial test — the selection of a new Cabinet that is expected to take place within a couple of weeks.

Mori has promised to choose ministers from the factions that supported him during the Diet vote, a move that may only encourage greater division within the LDP, say experts.

Infighting has already been pinpointed as one of the major reasons why the LDP lost its majority in the Lower House elections last June, forcing it to form a coalition government with two other parties.

In contrast, the opposition DJP, headed by Yukio Hatoyama and Kan Naoto, won 127 seats, up from its former 95 slots.

Naoto, who was the country’s health and welfare minister four years ago, has become particularly popular with the public. This occurred after he became the first politician to force top bureaucrats to release official documents that were relevant to a class action suit filed against the government regarding HIV-tainted blood supplies.

Analysts say a government led by the Democrats could mean better leadership in Japanese politics.

For instance, says Omura — who also happens to be an expert on Indonesia — a DJP government would take a more active role in the promotion of closer ties between Japan and Asia. He notes that the LDP’s conservative leaders have so far been content with depending on bureaucrats to develop this side of Japan’s foreign policy.

Omura also says that if the LDP manages to continue leading Japan but does not improve, it could well spell trouble for Mori’s recent suggestion for closer regional cooperation and expanded dialogue between the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the rest of East Asia, including Japan.

Mori made the suggestion after returning from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Brunei last month.

According to Omura, the proposal, which is supposed to materialise in 2020, would not work out unless there is active leadership in Japan. With a feeble LDP government, he says, this crucial development will only fall by the wayside.

Ozawa, meanwhile, predicts that a DJP government would usher in stricter controls on public works in Japan — a sector that has been the lifeline of rural votes for the LDP.

Expensive public works projects — worth a total of 9.4 trillion yen or 950 million dollars — was approved for fiscal year 2001 that starts next April. Ozawa says this would be reduced and rechecked should a DJP government take over.

The LDP continues to support public works projects, touting the hefty expenditure as an economic stimulus measure.

But there has been growing public anger against some of the projects, particularly dams and highways that are thought to pose health risks while also leading to environmental damage.

Ozawa allows that the LDP’s fate “ultimately rests with the voters”. But, she says, “as far as I can see, discontent is only growing and Japan heads for the next century with major challenges ahead”.