BRAZIL: Cardoso Diplomacy Seeks a Place at Superpowers’ Table

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 17 2002 (IPS) - Brazil’s President Fernando Henrique Cardoso began his two-day visit in Ukraine Wednesday, after spending three days in Russia, in search of new horizons for his country’s trade and foreign policy.

The main objective is economic, but this foreign tour by Cardoso, his 85th since taking office in January 1995, also has a strategic motive.

Cardoso was able to persuade Russian president Vladimir Putin to formalise his support for Brazil’s candidacy to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, a status that provides veto power, but which has been limited to Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States since 1945.

Russia’s backing is really only symbolic since Brazil is not yet recognised as a “great regional power, but only a middle-sized power,” not enough for conquering the desired post at the UN, Geraldo Cavagnari, coordinator of the University of Campinas strategic studies centre, told IPS.

Without military power to impose respect beyond its own borders, no country achieves the standards necessary to form part of the group of five nations whose decision influence the fate of the world, said Cavagnari, a retired army colonel.

But Brazil and India, considered giants of the developing South, are the middle-sized powers best positioned to meet the geopolitical conditions necessary for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, due to their progress in economic and technological development, but it is still not enough, Cavagnari said.

Brazil’s military capacity is limited and is focussed only on defending the national territory, a disadvantage with respect to China and India, which are able to impose their military might even without wielding nuclear weapons, at least among their neighbours, said the expert.

But Brazil’s immediate interest appears to be the more easily achievable goal of reinforcing and diversifying its trade relations with Russia and Ukraine.

Some 70 business executives are accompanying Cardoso and ministers Sergio Amaral (Development, Industry and Foreign Trade), Celso Lafer (Foreign Relations) and Ronaldo Sardenberg (Science and Technology) on their tour.

Their objective is to double Brazilian exports to Russia within the next few years, which is considered viable because these exports expanded 160 percent over the course of 2001, totalling 1.1 billion dollars, compared to the previous year’s 423 million dollars.

Meanwhile, imports from Russia remained stable at just over a half billion dollars. Russia thus represented nearly a quarter of Brazil’s trade surplus for 2001, which reached 2.64 billion dollars.

A limiting factor, however, is that Brazil’s foreign sales are heavily concentrated in sugar, beef, soluble coffee and tobacco.

Farm and agro-industrial products represent 95 percent of exports to Russia, which indicates that Brazil must diversify what it has to offer, said trade minister Amaral.

The Russian economy, largely recovered from the crisis of 1998, has been recording strong growth since then. It saw eight-percent growth in 2000, and 5.5 percent last year.

Russia, a major petroleum exporter, accumulated 110 billion dollars in trade surplus in 1999 and 2000, making it major potential importer, according to the Brazilian trade official.

Given that prospect, Brazil is backing Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) this year, a move that could favour Brazilian products that still face high tariffs in that market. Brazilian beef, for example, is subject to a 65-percent tariff in Russia.

The aeronautics industry could also serve as a route for growth and diversification in trade and technology relations between the two countries, particularly if the makers of the Russian Sukhoi Su- 35 fighter jet win the bidding process for replacing the Brazilian air force’s outdated French-built Mirages.

The bidding among those interested in the 700-million-dollar deal, to be decided in March, also involves manufacturers from the United States, France and Sweden. Brasilia made technology transfer a condition for participation in the process.

The Sukhoi, as well as the newer version of the Mirage, could be manufactured in Brazil, which would also expand the technology transfer and generate “wealth and jobs” for Brazilians, a decisive advantage, commented Cavagnari.

An additional advantage in a deal with the Russians is that it would open a major market for medium-range passenger aircraft, which are manufactured by Brazil’s own Embraer company, said the researcher. Because of France’s smaller territory, it would not have much use for such airplanes.

President Cardoso signed an accord Wednesday in Ukraine that opens the way for the Eastern European nation’s rockets to be launched from the Alcántar base in northern Brazil. The launches would take place through leasing contracts.

Cavagnari said that such cooperation in the aerospace sector is extremely important because it could become the point of “greatest convergence between Ukraine and Brazil.”

Brazil’s moves to reinforce ties with Russia and Ukraine form part of Cardoso’s strategy “to expand the country’s presence among major powers like China, India, Japan and the European Union,” said Clovis Brigagao, director of the Centre for American Studies at Candido Mendes University in Rio de Janeiro.

The aim is to “strengthen Brazil’s stance in negotiations with the United States,” he said.

The Brazilian president’s visit is taking place just a short time before the air force bidding is to be decided and Russia is to join the WTO. All heads of state today engage in trade diplomacy, and Cardoso “is a good salesman”, commented Brigagao.