/CORRECTED/POLITICS-BRITAIN: Straw Seeks to Troubleshoot in Indian Subcontinent

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Suri

LONDON, May 26 2002 (IPS) - British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw is being backed by the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to launch new troubleshooting diplomacy with India and Pakistan.

Straw is due to visit India and Pakistan soon in an attempt to cool down the developing crisis that has led to an unprecedented military build-up between the nuclear neighbours.

An estimated million soldiers from the two sides face one another over the border between the two countries, and the line of control that separates the two sides in the disputed territory of Kashmir.

The Indian build-up follows a series of terrorist attacks that the government in New Delhi says have Pakistani backing. The Pakistani government denies the charge, claiming it offers only moral and political support to Kashmiri rebels.

Britain was the former colonial power in India until 1947. The departure of the British in 1947 brought independence, and led to a partition of India that created Pakistan. East Pakistan later asserted independence to become Bangladesh in 1972. India and Pakistan have fought four wars over Kashmir since 1947.

A historical familiarity, extensive ground intelligence and a position of watchful neutrality have made Britain the inevitable troubleshooter as the crisis develops.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has been in close touch with Straw in recent days to co-ordinate the details of diplomatic action. U.S. President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are directly overseeing the situation, officials say.

“The situation is indeed grave and serious and the dangers inherent in it cannot be stressed enough,” Blair said in a statement following announcement of Straw’s visit.

“India and Pakistan are currently confronting each other, and I urge the leadership of both countries to pause and reflect before taking action that could plunge not just their countries but the wider region into conflict, with implications for the whole world,” the British prime minister added.

Blair said: “We are in constant touch with both countries and other allies, and we will do everything that we possibly can to try to calm the tension and remove the source of conflict.”

Blair pointed to the solution in a carefully worded statement. “My own view is that it is essential in the end that Pakistan should stop support for any form of terrorism in Kashmir or anywhere else in the region and, at the same time, that India should be prepared to offer a proper system of dialogue to resolve all issues between the two countries, including disputes over Kashmir,” he said.

“That is the only way we will resolve the issue in the long term. In the short term, I urge both countries to reflect carefully on the moves on which they may embark,” Blair said.

Straw’s visit will follow several other diplomatic moves in recent days. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca has just concluded a visit to India and Pakistan. Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Richard Armitage will soon visit the region. Chris Patten, the EU Commissioner for External Affairs, visited Pakistan, India and Afghanistan during the week beginning May 20.

Patten met senior leaders from both India and Pakistan. The visit marked the beginning of a more active EU diplomacy in the region.

Patten, who was the last British governor of Hong Kong, has taken the lead within the EU in tackling the Kashmir crisis. He campaigned successfully for a new focus on Kashmir at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on April 15.

Officials from both India and Pakistan who have been in close touch with the Foreign Office in London confirm that Britain will be playing a leading diplomatic role in attempting to defuse the crisis. Richard Armitage’s visit later will seek to reinforce Straw’s message to the two nations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited the leaders of India and Pakistan to an emergency summit in Kazakhstan in ten days. Straw’s visit is due to lay the groundwork for concerted international diplomacy.

Straw is clearly pushing for a stronger international role in defusing the crisis. Straw made a statement in the House of Commons supporting a stronger United Nations (UN) presence along the line of control in Kashmir. Straw noted that there are at present just 45 U.N. observers along the 450-mile line of control. They are all situated on the Pakistan side.

Straw also suggested international observation of elections due to be held in the Indian side of Kashmir later this year. The Indian government, however, opposes what it calls any internationalisation of the dispute.

But Straw said in a statement issued by the Foreign Office that the “international community is watching events with mounting concern.” He said: “The possibility of war between India and Pakistan is real – and very disturbing.”

Straw said: “Fundamentally this is an issue that can only be resolved by the parties concerned. The international communities’ task is to assist in that direction. But for the avoidance of doubt, I am not going to the region with any pre-cooked peace plan.”

In a pointer to the lead role Britain is playing, Straw said: “I have remained in close touch with both governments, and with allies who share our concerns.” He said he had “spoken regularly” with Powell and also with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan. “I have recently briefed Foreign Ministers at the EU’s General Affairs Council,” he added.

Underlining the seriousness of the diplomatic efforts are the fears that a conflict between the two countries could turn into a nuclear conflict. Both India and then Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in May 1998. The two countries are known to have a number of nuclear warheads, with missile systems capable of delivering them.

A team of scientists from Princeton University in New Jersey in the U.S. told the New Scientist magazine that if only a tenth of the nuclear weapons of the two countries were exploded above ten of their largest cities, it would leave 1.7 million dead and 900,000 injured in India and 1.2 million dead and 600,000 injured in Pakistan. Cancer would later kill an unknown number.

If the bombs explode on the ground, people would die from radioactive dust within hundreds of square miles.

Col. Christopher Langton, a leading expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London told IPS that war between the two countries is “not just possible but probable.”