BRAZIL: TV Separates Pres. Candidates Otherwise Bound by Economy

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 28 2002 (IPS) - The rise of the ruling coalition’s candidate José Serra in polls released Tuesday and Wednesday seems to prove that television will be a decisive factor in Brazil’s Oct 6 presidential elections, a race between candidates tied to the same economic platform.

The candidacy of social-democrat Serra, who appeared to be doomed a distant third place finish just days ago, has been revived according to the three latest surveys, which were conducted between Saturday and Monday, and reflect the initial impact of the campaign spots on radio and television that began last week on Aug 20.

The campaign under way reveals strong and rapid fluctuations in the preferences of the electorate, closely following the level of the candidates’ presence in the mass media.

Personal image has taken on greater weight given the similarities among the leading candidates’ political platforms, particularly on economic matters, say election watchers.

The crisis inherited from the Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration and an agreement signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) leave little manoeuvring room for offering different economic solutions in the coming years.

The poll showing greatest improvement for Serra was conducted by the firm IBOPE, which gave him 17 percent of the vote among those surveyed who say they will cast a ballot next month. This is six percentage points higher than last week’s IBOPE survey.

The centre-left Labour Front’s candidate, Ciro Gomes, fell from 26 to 21 percent in the same period, according to the poll.

Gomes, who served as treasury minister in 1994 and governor of the northeastern state of Ceará, is battling with Serra, a former national health minister, for second place, with their sight set on the first round of elections Oct 6.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the left-leaning Workers Party (PT), is maintaining his post as front-runner, with 35 percent support from likely voters, according to the poll.

Political analysts agree that he is almost guaranteed a place in the run-off round of the elections, slated for Oct 27.

Two other polls, conducted by Vox Populi and Sensus, also show the same trend, though with Serra remaining farther behind Gomes.

The changes in the polling figures can be attributed to the fact that Serra has better television presence, say observers. He aggressively criticised Gomes and reiterated the past actions and statements of his opponent that contradict his current assertions.

Serra, candidate of a coalition of the country’s two biggest parties — the Social Democrat and Brazilian Democratic –, has more TV and radio air time than his rivals during the two hours that broadcasters must make available for campaign advertising each day.

And television appears to be more decisive this time around than ever. The free broadcasts on the small screen “have considerable weight, and voter preferences are not immutable decisions,” says Dora Kramer, a commentator for the dailies Jornal do Brasil and O Estado de Sao Paulo.

Gomes became one of the favourites in June, when he nearly tripled his support after making repeated appearances on television, taking advantage of programmes of the three small parties that back him, allied in the Labour Front.

In Brazil, political parties have the right to periodically disseminate their ideas via national radio and television broadcasts outside the official electoral campaign period.

Gomes also benefited from the explicit support of his running mate, famous TV actress Patricia Pilar, who just months ago made an emotional public appearance, completely bald, to announce they she was undergoing treatment for breast cancer.

But now it is Serra who has the advantage. His coalition ensures him more than 20 minutes of television air time daily, compared to Gomes’s eight minutes. Furthermore, the governing party candidate generally has greater resources and experienced advisers to create effective campaign advertisements.

Gomes has no other choice but to launch a counterattack against Serra, affirm his opposition to the current administration, and put Pilar in the spotlight, says former president of the Senate, Antonio Carlos Magalhaes.

The low popularity of the Cardoso administration and the population’s well-known rejection of radical alternatives are forcing all candidates to present themselves as moderates, with promises for change, but maintaining the biggest achievement of Cardoso: relative monetary stability.

Serra acknowledges that he is the government’s candidate, but assures that he would promote new paths for the economy, creating eight million jobs and investing more in social programmes.

Lula, Gomes and Serra have all promised to foment strong economic growth, eliminating obstacles like high interest rates, and increasing the trade surplus with more exports, but they have not explained how they would overcome the contradictions between their goals and the stipulations of the IMF accord.

The three leading candidates have promised, for example, to carry out tax reforms in order to ease the burden of the productive sectors, while also complying with the fiscal recipe of the IMF for a surplus in public funds equivalent to 3.75 percent of gross domestic product.

In this context, some of Gomes’s “little lies” that Serra highlighted could prove fatal, such as Gomes’s claim that he never studied in private schools.

Serra’s own challenge is to distance himself from the unpopular government in which he served as health minister. Lula, meanwhile, faces the rejection of many voters because he is a former metalworker who lacks formal education. This sector of the electorate has prevented him from reaching the presidency in his three previous attempts.