ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: Fear vs. Hope in Presidential Run-Off

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 22 2002 (IPS) - The nearly assured victory of former labour leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second and final round of Brazil’s presidential elections Sunday is cause for both apprehension and anticipation, inside and outside the borders of this Latin American giant.

The ruling coalition’s candidate José Serra is insisting that a government led by the leftist Lula could push Brazil into crisis, and that the country would fall into hard times, as neighbouring Argentina and Venezuela have done.

The international markets have reacted to the Brazilian situation, prompting one credit-rating agency, Fitch Ratings, to downgrade Brazil’s status this week, reportedly due to doubts that Lula would continue with the current economic policies and that he might fail to take “prudent” decisions.

The centrist Serra is working overtime to reverse the overwhelming majority that voter preference surveys are giving Lula, of the Workers Party (PT), focussing on the leftist’s lack of political experience and training to deal with the country’s economic crisis.

Lula, who in the first electoral round on Oct 6 achieved a considerable advantage over his rivals, has all predictions in his favour for defeating Serra, his only rival, Oct 27.

Polls conducted in recent days show that Lula has a steady two- thirds support among the voters consulted. The extrapolation of that survey to the entire Brazilian electorate – 115 million people – gives the leftist an advantage of nearly 30 million votes.

Casting a ballot in presidential elections is obligatory under Brazilian law.

In Serra’s opinion, Lula could be compared to Venezuela’s outspoken Hugo Chávez, whose “populism” Serra says is the cause of that country’s political stability.

He also notes what he describes as similarities between Lula and former Argentine president Fernando de la Rúa, who saw that country’s financial system collapse and force his resignation.

But comparisons also abound from the other perspective. Nelson Mandela, the South African leader whose government put an end to the racist apartheid regime, is the example that some PT leaders say most closely reflects Lula’s political perspective.

His more radical opponents point to the tragic end of the socialist experience in Chile, where then-president Salvador Allende was overthrown by and killed in the 1973 Augusto Pinochet- led coup. Or they note the coup that toppled Joao Goulart in Brazil in 1964. In both cases, extended iron-fisted dictatorships followed.

Lula, whose formal education consists of four years of primary school, was a metalworker, leading some to associate him with Lech Walesa, president of Poland from 1990 to 1995, who was unable to deal with difficulties of the transition from socialism to capitalism.

But for observers who see a social-democrat vocation within the PT, the platform and moderate discourse of the current campaign reveal an evolution within the party and Lula similar to that of Labour’s Tony Blair in Britain, or of socialist Felipe González, former president of Spain.

In this final leg of the electoral race, the appeals for hope are confused among the manifestations of fear about a future government led by a metalworker with little formal schooling.

The uncertainties and the financial instability that weigh upon Brazil would seem to favour the governing candidate’s strategy.

It is a problem of ability, says Serra, simplifying the situation by stressing that his rival does not have government experience and that he never served in an executive post, only as a legislative deputy for one term in the 1980s.

Serra, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), is an economist by training and served as minister of Planning, and later of Health, under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who began his first presidential term in 1995 and ends his second in January.

Regina Duarte, a television star, took part in a campaign advertising spot, in which she expressed fear of economic failure and a return of high inflation if Lula were to reach the presidency.

Another actress, Paloma Duarte (no relation to the first), came out with a forceful response: exploiting the population’s fear is “electoral terrorism, unworthy of a serious candidate” for the presidency.

While most actors, musicians and artists are Lula supporters, his status as favourite in the run-off is cause for instability on the currency markets, according to several analysts.

The real, the Brazilian currency, has been steadily losing ground with respect to the dollar since May.

The government and the financial markets are pressuring the PT and Lula to provide a more detailed political platform and to list the first measures to be taken in the economic arena, which would include a rapid designation of the new president of the Central Bank.

Economic experts from international banks, and investors like the billionaire George Soros have suggested that Brazil is on the verge of debt default due to the high interests it is paying to maintain foreign credit and to the explosive growth of internal debt, most of which is in dollars.

“I am voting for hope,” said bishop Mauro Morelli, a well-known leader of the progressive currents within the Brazilian Catholic Church and active participant in social programmes, particularly in the fight against hunger.

Since it became evident that Lula will almost surely win the Nov 27 run-off elections, the debate has concentrated on the possibilities of success or failure of his administration, which the PT leader assures will be “a government of national unity”.

The challenge Lula faces is enormous, given the country’s economic stagnation that has caused a series of financial crises and the probable increase in society’s demands for answers from a leftist “people’s” government. (END/IPS/LA/IP/TRA-SO LD/MO/FF/02)

ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: Fear vs. Hope in Presidential Run-Off

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 22 2002 (IPS) - The nearly assured victory of former labour leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second and final round of Brazil’s presidential elections Sunday is cause for both apprehension and anticipation, inside and outside the borders of this Latin American giant.
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