ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: Time to Decide the Magnitude of Change

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 7 2002 (IPS) - Voters in Brazil clearly expressed their desire for change in Sunday’s elections, with leftist presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receiving just short of a majorityof the vote, but it will be up to the Oct 27 run-off to determine the magnitude of the shift in political direction.

Voters in Brazil clearly expressed their desire for change in Sunday’s elections, but it will be up to the Oct 27 run-off to determine the magnitude of the shift in political direction.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the candidate of the Lula President coalition led by the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), failed to win the absolute majority of votes necessary to avoid a second round in the race to succeed President Fernando Henrique Cardoso on Jan 1.

With 98.3 percent of the votes counted by Monday 08:00 local time (11:00 GMT), Lula had taken 46.5 percent of the total vote (not counting blank and spoiled ballots).

That means 38.76 million votes – twice the amount garnered by his closest rival, the social democrat José Serra, a former planning and health minister who has the backing of the Cardoso administration.

The two candidates who will fight it out in the run-off presented similar platforms, pledging to create between eight and 10 million new jobs over the next four years, and to spur economic growth and exports, while putting top priority on social areas.

However, Brazilians can clearly distinguish between a leftist former metalworker and trade unionist like Lula, who presented pragmatic, moderate policy proposals, and Serra, who represents a continuation of the policies of the current government – which has unfailingly put precedence on monetary stability – despite his stated rejection of ”continuity”.

To overcome Lula’s 20-million-vote lead, Serra can take cheer in the fact that political scientists underline that ”a second round is a new election,” with all of the surprises that can entail, not to mention a new bout of televised debates between the two candidates, in which either one could shine.

The debates in the campaign for Sunday’s elections were ”three against one,” said the president of the co-governing Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), José Anibal.

He was referring to the attacks on the government by Lula, Anthony Garotinho and Ciro Gomes – the three main opposition candidates – when they debated with Serra.

In addition, Serra will enjoy the support of six governors who were elected outright in the first round, and who either form part of the ruling coalition – made up of the PSDB and the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) – or are close to it.

But it will be an uphill task for Serra, due to Lula’s enormous lead, as well as the fact that a combined 25 million votes were taken by Garotinho and Gomes, both of whom will tend to speak out in favour of the coalition headed by the PT, according to analysts.

The PT – the country’s main leftist party – can also consider itself the winner of Sunday’s general elections, even though Lula did not take the 50-percent-plus-one-vote needed to be directly elected.

Of the 12 state governors elected without the need for a second round, two belong to the PT, including a candidate who chalked up a surprise victory in the northeastern state of Piauí, where opinion poll results indicated that the party’s candidate did not stand a chance.

In addition, PT candidates will dispute the post of governor in the run-off in eight states, compared to just six for Serra and Cardoso’s PSDB.

Brazil is made up of 26 states and a federal district. The candidates for the governorships also needed to win an absolute majority to avoid a run-off.

In the Senate, 54 out of a total of 81 seats were renewed, as well as the entire 513-seat lower house, while voters also chose state legislators.

Of the 54 senators elected, 10 belong to the PT – a higher proportion than even the party itself expected. Economist Aloizio Mercadante, who became senator-elect for Sao Paulo with more than 10 million votes, was one of the big surprises, and his influence within the PT should now grow.

The PT will thus hold 14 seats in the Senate, compared to the PSDB’s 11.

In four states, including the richest and most populous, Sao Paulo, the Oct 27 poll will pit the PT against the PSDB, like in the presidential contest.

That could create friction between the two parties, complicating the possibility of a future alliance in the interest of governance and European-style social democratic policies, according to observers and business leaders.

Garotinho, meanwhile, assured himself a strong position in the national political map, taking third place in the presidential election, representing the small Brazilian Socialist Party. At the same time, his wife, Rosinha Garotinho, was elected governor of Rio de Janeiro, thanks largely to her husband’s popularity.

Although the final official results will not be announced until Wednesday, the small proportion of votes still to be tallied will not change the outcome.

Turn-out stood at 82.3 percent of the country’s 115.3 million registered voters, while the proportion of blank and spoiled ballots ran to 11 percent.

The first-ever nationwide computerised voting slowed down the tally, which ended at 1:15 local time (4:15 GMT) Monday, due to technical problems and difficulties faced by voters unfamiliar with computers.