POPULATION: Growth Soaring Among the Poorest

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Suri

LONDON, Dec 3 2002 (IPS) - International help is falling desperately short in the fight to contain population growth, says the new state of world population report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

A result is that population growth in the world’s poorest countries is skyrocketing while much of the developed world is below replacement level.

"Our major problem is resources," Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, executive director of UNFPA told IPS at the launch of the report Tuesday. In the immediate there is a desperate shortage of condoms. But money is needed to alleviate poverty and to promote education, particularly among women, she said.

Alex Marshall, editor of the report told IPS that the global requirement of condoms is about eight billion a year. But international suppliers working through UNFPA have been able to supply only about one billion condoms a year, he said. That leaves a severe shortfall "not just in the 49 least developed countries but in others, too," he said.

According to the UNFPA executive director, there is no shortage of supply. "But we need the resources to meet the demand."

The report recalls that at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, nations committed themselves to the goal of universal access to reproductive health by 2015. Countries agreed that one-third of the 17 billion dollars annual requirement for basic reproductive health and population programmes in 2000 was to come from the international community; two-thirds was to be provided by developing and other countries.

In the year 2000, total expenditure was 10.9 billion dollars, 6.1 billion dollars short. Donor countries contributed 2.6 billion dollars, less than a quarter (24 per cent) of total expenditure, and less than half (46 per cent) of their commitment. Developing countries contributed 8.3 billion dollars, 76 per cent of the total spent and about 73 per cent of their commitment, says the report.

"This year, for the first time the report is able to show solid evidence that actions that reduce fertility also help produce economic growth and reduce poverty," said Obaid, highlighting another aspect of the study.

Developing countries that have invested in family planning, smaller families and slower population growth have achieved higher productivity, more savings and more productive investment. Fertility declines accounted for one-fifth of the economic growth in East Asia between 1960 and 1995, says the report.

Investments in health and education, and gender equality are vital to the "population effect" on economic growth, the report says. It argues that addressing population concerns is critical to meeting the Millennium Development Goals of cutting global poverty and hunger in half by 2015, reducing maternal and child deaths, curbing HIV/AIDS, advancing gender equality, and promoting environmentally sustainable development.

The report projects that the world population will grow from the present 6.211 billion to 9.322 billion by 2050. Over this period the population of the developed world will decline from 1.196 billion to 1.181 billion.

In the less developed countries, it will rise from 5.015 billion to 8.141 billion, and in the least developing countries it will rise from 692.2 million to 1.829 billion.

The population of Ethiopia, for example is expected to increase from 66 million to 186.5 million, of Somalia from 9.6 million to 40.9 million and of Uganda from 24.8 million to 101.5 million.

In contrast, the population of Europe is projected to fall from 725.1 million to 603.3 million. The population of Bulgaria, for example, will decline from 7.8 million to 4.5 million, of Italy from 57.4 million to 43 million, of Spain from 39.9 million to 31.3 million, of Germany from 82 million to 70.8 million, of Russia from 143.8 million to 104.3 million.

However, the population of the U.S. is expected to rise from 288.5 million to 397.1 million. But this projected increase takes into account new immigration and a substantial growth among the country’s recent immigration population.

Among the most populated countries, the population of China is set to rise from 1.294 billion to 1.462 billion and that of India from 1.041 billion to 1.572 billion. The population of Pakistan is set to more than double from 148.7 million to 344.2 million., while that of Bangladesh from 143.4 million to 265.4 million.

According to the UNFPA report, the population of West Asia including countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates is projected to more than double from 196.6 million to 423.9 million.

But the soaring population growth in the poor countries can be checked, the report says. "Given a real choice, poor people in developing countries have smaller families than their parents did," the report says. "This downturn in fertility at the ‘micro’ level translates within a generation into potential economic growth at the ‘macro’ level."

But the report warns that this "demographic window" opens only once and will close as populations age and older dependants increase. When other policies are supportive, the opportunity can allow dramatic progress, the report says. Several countries in East Asia, as well as Mexico and Brazil, have taken advantage of it.

"However, the gap between rich and poor continues to widen and the poorest countries continue to lag behind," the report says. "Poverty, poor health and fertility remain highest in the least developed countries where population has tripled since 1955 and is expected to nearly triple again over the next 50 years."

The report says: "Far more attention from policy makers and greater international support is needed for population and reproductive health if countries are to halve poverty by 2015 and make effective progress towards the Millennium Development Goals."

The report cites studies that show that an additional year of female education reduced total fertility by 0.23 births, and another that reduction was 0.32 births, and that an investment in education of women brings substantial returns.

The report can be seen at www.unfpa.org.

POPULATION: Growth Soaring Among the Poorest

By Sanjay Suri Reprint | | Print |

Sanjay Suri

LONDON, Dec 3 2002 (IPS) - International help is falling desperately short in the fight to contain population growth, says the new state of world population report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
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