ARGENTINA: Pro-President Congress Makes Its Debut

By Marcela Valente Reprint | | Print |

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 10 2003 (IPS) - With a president who enjoys a high approval rating and with a fragmented and diffuse opposition, Argentina debuted a renewed Congress on Wednesday, in which the ruling party holds the majority.

President Néstor Kirchner’s main challenge upon taking office on May 25 was to legitimise the mandate of just 22 percent of the votes he received in the first round of elections, because former president Carlos Menem (1989-1999) pulled out of the run-off election when polls predicted a Kirchner landslide victory.

Questions also lingered about how much autonomy he had with respect to other leaders in his Justicialista (Peronist) Party, such Menem himself and particularly Eduardo Duhalde, his primary backer and also his predecessor, serving in the presidency since January 2002 after being designated by Congress to serve out the term of Fernando de la Rúa who resigned amidst financial and social chaos in December 2001.

But Kirchner has more than weathered these challenges so far, achieving positive marks for his performance from 88 percent of the Argentines surveyed by the Equis polling firm, a proportion confirmed by other pollsters.

Furthermore, Menem practically disappeared from the political scene after abandoning the fight for the presidency, and Duhalde, beyond some disagreements with Kirchner on specific issues, has opted to back the government.

Nevertheless, there are more than a few troublesome issues that Kirchner will have to deal with, and analysts are saying that the past six months have served as a warm-up.

Wednesday was to be the last day of De la Rúa’s term, if the economic collapse and massive protests had not forced him from office on Dec. 20, 2001.

High unemployment and unprecedented poverty, in addition to a wave of insecurity with its mafia undertones, are issues that are heating up the political agenda. But the government and society are also burdened with the problem of renegotiating 95 billion dollars of debt that was declared in default at the end of 2001.

Around 18 percent of the economically active population is unemployed and approximately that same portion is underemployed or works in the informal economy. Those figures do not include the heads of household who do not have jobs and receive the meagre state subsidy that fails to cover even basic necessities.

More than 52 percent of the 37 million Argentines live in poverty and the country’s debts total more than 145 billion dollars, equivalent to 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Kirchner has so far shown great political will to implement in-depth solutions that also garner public support, at least in the short term.

His moves to renew the leadership of the Argentine security forces and to modify the make-up of the Supreme Court are the most notable examples in this sense.

It remains to be seen whether this popular support will extend to the institutional sphere.

A parliamentary source close to the presidency told IPS that the government’s fears of lack of support from Congress have begun to dissipate with the passage of time and the reinforcement of the president’s status.

As of Wednesday, the Peronists hold majority power in both houses of Congress and govern 15 of Argentina’s 23 provinces. However, these numbers do not necessarily mean Kirchner can count on the loyalty of his fellow party members, as he comes from a minority centre-left sector of the Justicialista Party.

"The main alliances that the administration will have to build in Congress will not be with other parties but within the party itself, where there are several blocs clashing and a diaspora of leaders who answer to no one," Gerardo Adrogué, sociologist and public opinion expert, told IPS.

In the 257-seat Chamber of Deputies, the Peronists have upped their presence from 116 to 130 representatives, which means the party has a quorum on its own. But that is a mathematical calculation that almost never coincides with the outcomes of the complex political negotiations, say experts.

Just 40 of the 130 Peronist deputies are followers of the Kirchner line, another 38 back his main ally Duhalde, and then come many who have not yet defined their internal alliances. Meanwhile, a handful of ‘Menemistas’ seem to be more at odds with their own party than with the opposition.

As such, Adrogué and other political analysts believe the main support of the administration is the original alliance between Kirchner and Duhalde, and to a lesser degree the "transversal" approach that the Peronists are using to build ties with leaders of centre-left groups.

The main opposition force in the Chamber of Deputies continues to be the long-standing Radical Civic Union (UCR), despite the major electoral losses suffered in the wake of the De la Rúa debacle. The party has 47 deputies and governs five provinces.

With less representation but with relatively strong public support are the centre-left Argentines for a Republic of Equals (ARI), the new right-leaning Recrear group, branches of the Socialist Party and other leftist sectors.

In the 71-seat Senate, the renewal of a third of the membership did not bring any surprises. The Justicialistas gained one seat for a total of 41, and the UCR remains at 16.

Kirchner has already won key support from both houses of Congress. Since May, he obtained an annulment of the so-called Due Obedience and Full Stop laws that granted amnesty of sorts to the military members involved in human rights abuses during the 1976-1983 dictatorship. The move has paved the way for opening court cases against the dictatorship’s torturers.

He also pushed an initiative through Congress to give the justice system a facelift, targeting the most questioned members of the Supreme Court. Three vacancies were created as a result, one because of impeachment and two through resignations, apparently out of fear of facing the same trial before Congress.

The Kirchner administration also received parliamentary approval for the 2004 budget, which includes giving extraordinary authority to the Cabinet chief, Alberto Fernández, to make alterations to special funding designations.

As such, the Kirchner government has been able to extend its "honeymoon period" longer than is usual in Latin America, even though the president took office in a time of rock-bottom regard for politicians and parties.

Equis reports that the president is the most popular figure in Argentine politics, with 88 percent of the people polled saying they have a positive image of him. The Centre for New Majority Studies also found strong backing for Kirchner: 70 percent.

Adrogué believes the citizenry’s approval "is not of the government, but of the president himself."

"The Kirchner phenomenon goes beyond the government," he said, explaining that the support runs even deeper to the extent that the opposition remains diffuse, fragmented and unable to respond.

Until about six months ago, Elisa Carrió, ARI leader, and Ricardo López Murphy, of Recrear, disputed the opposition leadership post. The two were the presidential candidates came closest to Kirchner and Menem in the first round vote.

But their criticisms of Kirchner have undermined their own standing, particularly because the president implemented social policies that have been very popular. He also took up some of their causes, such as Carrió’s anti-corruption fight, so the deputy’s criticisms of the president have come across as being contrary for the sake of being contrary.

Carrió resigned from the House of Deputies on Wednesday, and López Murphy did not run for a seat in Congress this term.

"The Peronist in-fighting exists but there is no reason to exaggerate it. It will be easier than imagined for the government to achieve quorum in the two houses of Congress, at least during the first year and a half," predicts Adrogué.

There are two more points in favour of Kirchner, says the expert, who heads the Knack consultancy and is professor at the National University of San Martín.

"The political opposition is just now forming. That gives relative strength to the government," and at the same time, the public’s expectations of the government are high, despite the fact that the situation in Argentina in general is negative, he said.

"It is not the first time that there is a period of high expectation, but the difference is that other such ‘bubbles’ have not been long lasting. This time the conditions will last at least until the government is able to show some results," he added.