US-VENEZUELA: From Hostile Rhetoric to Open Confrontation

By Humberto Márquez Reprint | | Print |

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Jan 14 2004 (IPS) - The thorny relations between the United States and Venezuela are moving from the stage of rhetoric into the realm of open political confrontation, said analysts consulted by IPS in Caracas.

In the past week, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has come in for harsh words from U.S. President George W. Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell, National Security adviser Condoleezza Rice, assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs Roger Noriega, and State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

Bush took advantage of the Special Summit of the Americas held Monday and Tuesday in the northeastern Mexican city of Monterrey to state that ”support of democratic institutions…gives hope and strength to those struggling to preserve their God-given rights, whether in Venezuela, or Haiti, or Bolivia.”

In a joint news briefing offered with his host, Mexican President Vicente Fox, Bush directly referred to the recall referendum with which the opposition movement in Venezuela is seeking to remove Chávez.

”That cannot be mere rhetoric…because the current U.S. government is made up of ‘hawks’ – people who act,” political scientist Alberto Garrido told IPS.

Garrido is the author of books on the ”Chávez phenomenon” and Plan Colombia, the heavily U.S.-financed anti-drug and counterinsurgency strategy currently being implemented in that civil war-torn country that borders Venezuela.

Professor of International Studies Carlos Romero at the Central University, Venezuela’s leading university, told IPS that the history of Latin America ”demonstrates that the United States acts according to the circumstances, and in a scenario of confrontation, a U.S. military intervention cannot simply be ruled out.”

But Venezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton said the confrontation was not likely to escalate, because Caracas and Washington ”share innumerable common interests that must be protected and developed, above and beyond the fundamentalist passions of those who admonish us for no reason.”

Ranking high among those shared interests are the nearly 1.4 million barrels a day of oil that Caracas exports to the United States – nearly half of Venezuela’s oil sales, which are the lifeblood of the local economy.

Nevertheless, for the first time since Chávez, a former lieutenant-colonel, took office in 1999, reports have come out that the military high command in Venezuela is studying the scenario of an eventual U.S. invasion.

”The issue of a possible invasion of Venezuela by the United States is not a concern. But that does not mean we are not going to evaluate it,” army division General Melvin López, secretary of the National Defence Council, and an officer considered politically close to Chávez, told the public TV station.

In the National Defence Council, ”we study and monitor all possible scenarios. We never lose sight of Venezuela’s strategic importance, based on the fact that it has the hemisphere’s biggest oil reserves, and on the country’s mineral and water reserves and its privileged position facing the Caribbean sea,” said López.

Garrido pointed to a clash between two political projects: the conservative Bush’s aim to impose Washington’s agenda on Latin America and the Caribbean, and Chávez’s attempt to ”internationalise his leftist revolution” and strengthen an ”anti-neoliberal hub” of governments, made up of Buenos Aires, Brasilia, Caracas and Havana.

In Romero’s view, Washington’s relations with Caracas have entered a fourth stage: confrontation.

In the first stage, from 1999 to 2001, the United States decided to ”wait and see the real extent of Chávez’s revolutionary rhetoric,” he said.

The second, in 2001, was marked by ”suspicion” regarding Chávez’s commitment to democracy and whether he would stay in line with the free market values prevailing in the Americas. The third stage, which began in May 2003, was one of ”doing the right thing.”

But according to the academic, relations are entering a new phase, characterised by an attitude of ”I don’t want to be your friend.”

Last May, the Venezuelan government and the broad opposition movement signed a commitment to coming up with a democratic, constitutional solution to the political crisis that is dividing Venezuelan society.

The opposition has collected signatures to request a referendum to remove Chávez from office before his term ends in 2006.

The president’s supporters also carried out their own petition drive, with the intention of removing opposition lawmakers from parliament.

The National Electoral Council must now validate the signatures that were handed in, and decide whether the minimum number required for holding a referendum was reached by either the opposition or by Chávez’s followers.

But while there has been heavy pressure from both sides, only the Chávez administration has been upbraided by Washington.

”President Fox and I will also continue our efforts to support democracy in the region,” said Bush in the joint press conference he held with his Mexican counterpart in Monterrey. ”We will work with the Organisation of American States to ensure the integrity of the presidential recall and referendum process underway in Venezuela.”

Just a few days earlier, Powell had referred to the tense relations between the United States and Chávez, saying Washington was pleased with the collection of signatures, and that if enough people signed the petition, a referendum would be held, and the people would decide how they wished to be governed.

In remarks to the press at the Monterrey summit, Chávez attempted to downplay the statements by Bush and Powell. ”They’re along the same lines: that there will be a referendum only if enough signatures are collected by the opposition,” which is ”elementary, my dear Watson,” he joked.

According to Chávez, Bush’s statements were ”much more intelligent than those of his adviser” – a reference to Rice’s Jan. 9 remarks that the Venezuelan president is not playing a constructive role in the region.

Rice also urged Chávez not to oppose the referendum, saying ”The best thing that President Chávez could do at this point is to demonstrate that he believes in a democratic future for Venezuela by carrying out the wishes of his people in this regard.”

Chávez quipped that Rice ”is a true illiterate,” and suggested she be sent one of the ”Plan Robinson” booklets – used in the government’s adult literacy campaign – to ”see if she learns to respect the dignity of the people and learns a bit about us.”

He later apologised for the terms he used, although he stood behind the deeper meaning underlying his response, which was that ”she should not stick her nose into Venezuela’s sovereign affairs.”

Last week, Ereli expressed concern over a supposed alliance between Cuba and Venezuela aimed at destabilising democracies in Latin America and the Caribbean, while Noriega called on Chávez to observe the rule of law ahead of the recall referendum.

In addition, Ereli and Noriega said there had been reports that Venezuela and Cuba were funding an effort to cultivate anti-American sentiment in Latin America.

According to Romero, ”All of this indicates that for the United States, Venezuela’s stability depends on the holding of a recall referendum, and we can expect open confrontation if the National Electoral Council says there are not enough signatures and the referendum won’t be held.”

Garrido, meanwhile, said the war on words would continue to escalate, ”because Bush’s plan, within the broader framework of ‘military globalisation’, sees this year as a kind of deadline, because success must be achieved before 2005 with respect to Plan Colombia and the negotiations for the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas.”

The analyst also pointed to the November elections in the United States, noting that Bush’s bid for re-election means he ”must attend to the anti-Castro voter, to whom he promised he would help bring about a quick democratic transition in Cuba, which is now seen as part of a fulcrum with Caracas.”

In April 2002, Chávez survived a two-day failed coup staged by the opposition in conjunction with anti-Chávez officers. He also weathered a two-month general strike in December 2002 and January 2003.

Chávez recently admitted that ”President Bush has a political worldview very different than mine. I am a man of the left who is every day more committed to the thinking and action of a revolutionary, transformational left, while he comes from the most conservative wing of the Republican Party.”

”That difference is insuperable,” he added.

Political analysts here agree that the period of tolerance, when Washington was satisfied as long as Venezuela ensured a steady supply of oil, is coming to an end, and giving way to a phase of open confrontation.