POLITICS-SRI LANKA: Economy, Jobs are Key Issues in April Poll

By Feizal Samath Reprint | | Print |

Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Feb 9 2004 (IPS) - While Sri Lanka’s last parliamentary poll two years ago was fought over a desperate need to halt 18 years of bloodshed between government troops and Tamil rebels, fresh elections on Apr. 2 will be a tussle over the economy and jobs.

In interviews by IPS, many believe that the political party that is able to convince voters of its ability to create jobs and economic development – in addition to resuming peace talks with the Tiger rebels – will be the most likely winner of the vote.

The Apr. 2 poll was set after President Chandrika Kumaratunga dissolved parliament on Saturday night, paving the way for elections nearly four years ahead of schedule.

The ruling United National Party (UNP), led by Chandrika’s rival, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremsinghe, is perceived as having ”somewhat failed the masses due to its inability to create jobs though a peace dividend was promised”, said a top economist who declined to be named.

”At the same time, however, many are also doubtful whether the new opposition alliance can deliver the goods,” the economist added.

At the last parliamentary election in December 2001, Wickremesinghe’s UNP won 109 seats while Kumaratunga’s wider Peoples Alliance could muster only 77 seats in the 225-seat legislature. The UNP was still only able to secure a single-seat majority with the support of smaller parties.

Chandrika’s move for a new vote occurs in a political scene that over the last year has been marked by the suspension of the peace talks with Tiger rebels in April 2003, and an open split between her and Wickremesinghe in November that has now ended in the setting of new elections.

But the April poll may not necessarily lead to a more placid political situation either. It is unlikely to throw a clear winner with smaller parties like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), widely seen as a proxy for the Tamil Tiger rebels, and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) together clinching over 30 seats, and deciding the ultimate winner.

The vote would also not solve the issue of cohabitation in a system where the president and prime minister could again come from two opposing parties as in December 2001.

”People were hoping that cohabitation between two parties would work but it didn’t,” said Kethesh Loganathan, director of the Peace and Conflict Unit at the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a private think tank.

Many fear that all this political wrangling may undercut the peace process, but Loganathan believes there is no danger of the ceasefire – which begins its third year this month – breaking. ”I don’t think there is a problem with the ceasefire. The peace process itself has been on hold for a while (with no talks between the government and the LTTE since April),” he remarked.

Anton Balasingham, the Tigers’ political advisor and theoretician, called the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections a “grave setback to the peace process”. “The decision to seek another mandate from the people clearly demonstrates the fact that the (majority) Sinhala political leadership lacks the political will and vision to resolve the country’s burning issue – the Tamil national question,” he was quoted as saying today on TamilNet, the pro-rebel website.

While repeatedly accusing Kumaratunga of jeopardising the peace process, the Tamil rebels have said that it is ready to negotiate with any party that has the support of the majority-Sinhalese south.

The truce with Tiger rebels has indeed halted the spate of killings from the ethnic conflict – totalling some 64,000 since 1983 – and temporarily ended bombings in the capital and outside, but Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s promise of a peace dividend has yet to be realised.

Unemployment is still high, not least with state companies being sold to the private sector.

The situation was such that toward the latter part of 2003, Wickremesinghe called several meetings with business leaders and heads of top companies to urge them to invest more in the economy and create more jobs.

All of this is why most people reckon the election would be fought on economic lines this time, with Kumaratunga’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and new alliance partner, the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) having a slight edge over the UNP. The JVP position on the peace process is however uncertain and could prove a negative factor in the April vote. The Marxist group believes the LTTE should be militarily defeated before peace talks are held. But at a press conference in January, when the new alliance was formed, it said it was ready for a continuation of the current peace process.

Still, P Balakrishnan, director of the National Peace Council, a foreign-funded peace promoter, says the peace process could be a non-starter if the SLFP-JVP alliance wins power. ”The JVP is known for its chauvinistic stand and may not want to proceed with peace talks,” he said.

Even in the war-torn northern city of Jaffna, the business community has complained of the lack of a peace dividend from the peace process.

“Nothing has changed here since the war. In fact the entry of Colombo business firms here has had a negative impact on our society,” said M Ramathasan, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Yarlpanam in Jaffna in an interview with IPS late January.

The political wrangling between Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe has further delayed much need aid for humanitarian work and development in the war-torn north-east.

Peter Harrold, World Bank director for Sri Lanka, told IPS that donors were likely to discuss the latest political developments vis-a-vis disbursement of donor money. He said there would be delays in disbursements if decisions cannot be made until a new government is in place.

Farmers living outside the north-east region and whose families form the bulk of the voting population also say the ruling party has failed in delivering on its promise of reducing costs to the farmer and reducing the high cost of living to consumers.

”Rice farmers are struggling to survive while a drought has aggravated the situation this year,” said Kendiris Appuhamy, a mason in Colombo whose family owns paddy land in the north-central region.

Signs of restiveness have also been emerging elsewhere, such as in a string of strikes by government doctors and other medical staff over the past two years to ask for back wages. An 11-day strike by railway workers was called off on Sunday after parliament was dissolved.

A death fast by farmers protesting rising fertiliser costs began last week in Colombo, adding to the ruling UNP’s litany of problems.