ARGENTINA: Glowing One-Year Reviews for Kirchner

By Marcela Valente Reprint | | Print |

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, May 24 2004 (IPS) - Although analysts in Argentina might differ with one aspect or another of the administration of President Néstor Kirchner, there is virtually universal agreement that in his first year in office he has successfully restored the credibility of the political system, which was shot to pieces by his predecessors over the past decade.

The anniversary of his first year in office, Tuesday, finds Kirchner enjoying three or four times the popular support – depending on the focus of the opinion poll – that he had in the April 2003 elections, when he took a mere 22 percent of the vote.

But observers point out that the ”honeymoon” with public opinion will end sooner or later, and they say the first signs of wear-and-tear will emerge on the economic front, as a consequence of the numerous public run-ins the president has had with the heads of privatised utilities, Argentina’s creditors, and groups like pensioners, the unemployed and others who are calling for more equal distribution of the country’s wealth.

”The extraordinary economic (growth) cycle that has accompanied Kirchner so far is beginning to slow down,” political scientist Sergio Berensztein, at the Torcuato Di Tella University, told IPS.

The Argentine economy grew 8.7 percent in 2003, but the severe energy crisis plaguing the country has curbed projections for strong growth this year.

The government plans to review the contracts for Argentina’s privatised public utilities, which are pressing hard to be allowed to raise the rates they charge.

The administration is also trying to restructure an enormous debt with holders of state bonds declared in default during the December 2001 economic and political meltdown, when Argentina saw a procession of four interim presidents in the two weeks following the collapse of the government of Fernando de la Rúa.

To those problems are added a set of negative factors at the international level, like the apparently imminent rise in U.S. interest rates and the inevitable impact that will have on Argentina and especially neighbouring Brazil, this country’s main trading partner; the slump in the price of soy beans, Argentina’s top export today; and record high oil prices.

These factors represent storm clouds on the horizon and pose new challenges to the president, who analysts describe as centre-left, but who belongs to the Justicialista (Peronist) Party, which has traditionally encompassed a broad range of ideological currents, with the subsequent internal contradictions and divisions.

Although over the past year, the official poverty rate dropped from a soaring 57.5 to 47.8 percent and unemployment fell from 17.8 to 14.5 percent, the constant demands from workers, the unemployed and pensioners for better distribution of income have not let up in this country of 37 million, where thousands are going hungry despite the fact that enough food is produced to meet the needs of at least three times as many people.

Kirchner, who came in second in the first round of elections, took office on May 25, 2003 after his rival, former president Carlos Menem (1989-1999) – a fellow Peronist, who won 24 percent of the vote – withdrew from the run-off.

In his two five-year terms in office, Menem was a devoted follower of free-market, neo-liberal economic policies, and privatised everything within reach. Today he is living in Chile, avoiding two national and international arrest warrants in connection with corruption cases.

Because Menem pulled out of the race, Kirchner was unable to confirm in the run-off election what the opinion polls predicted: that he would have defeated the ex-president in a landslide victory.

After the elections, observers warned that Kirchner, who also lacked a strong, clearly defined support base within his party, would have to swiftly establish his legitimacy. But no one questions that he has done just that.

The Mora y Araujo local polling firm found last week that the Kirchner administration’s approval ratings stood at 63 percent, while 73 percent of respondents held a positive image of the president himself, who was virtually unknown prior to last year’s elections.

In fact, Kirchner had the strongest positive image of any of Argentina’s political leaders.

But Analía del Franco’s Analogías polling firm found even higher approval ratings for the president: a survey by her company found that 86 percent of those interviewed held a positive image of Kirchner while 78 percent supported his government.

”I voted for (Kirchner) without any expectations, mainly just to stop Menem from winning. But then I started to like him because he appears to be an honest guy, who tells the truth and knows where he’s going,” Susana Martínez, a retiree who works behind the counter of a shop to top off her medium-size pension, told IPS.

Within just a few weeks of taking office, the new president had already taken several steps long demanded by society, such as a purge of the armed forces and police leadership, an overhaul of the Supreme Court, which was widely seen as corrupt, and measures that favoured a reopening of cases involving human rights abuses committed by the 1976-1983 military dictatorship.

He then began to renegotiate the country’s huge foreign debt with a style previously unseen in Argentina. His firm stance vis-a-vis creditors brought the country several times to the verge of default on its debt with the multilateral lending agencies, which he challenged to accept the conditions set by his government for meeting debt servicing payments.

The CTA central trade union, which has been critical of every administration since its creation in the 1980s, decided to actively back the government of Kirchner, on the grounds that the president needed greater support to promote the progressive changes on his agenda, which sometimes ran into resistance from within his cabinet.

The CTA, a centre-left trade union that mainly groups teachers and other public employees, emerged as a counterweight to the CGT labour confederation, which has links to the Peronist right.

”The president can’t do it on his own. In his government there are conflicting visions, so we have to help mark the path he should take,” CTA official Edgardo Depetri told IPS shortly before a street demonstration held last week to demand concrete actions to combat hunger and poverty.

After the CTA rally, which urged the government to channel part of the fiscal surplus into social areas to help the poor instead of increasing payments on the foreign debt, the Economy Ministry announced that the funds would go towards social spending, including raises for public sector wages and pensions.

”After five years of weak presidents and despite the limited number of votes he took in the elections, Kirchner was able to rebuild the authority of the office of the president,” said Berensztein.

Analía del Franco, Artemio López, Rosendo Fraga and other analysts agreed, underlining the president’s ability to restore public confidence in the words of their leaders.

By the time de la Rúa was forced to resign in December 2001, after economic collapse triggered massive protests and unrest, the credibility of the nation’s politicians, already low, had plunged to a truly dismal level.

But the visceral rejection of politicians, who began to be booed and jeered, and even punched, in public, has now given way to peaceful coexistence, and government officials and parliamentarians can once again walk down the streets in peace thanks to the performance of the current administration, according to pollsters.

However, Berensztein warned of the outspoken Kirchner’s tendency to confront and sometimes provoke business, bankers, multilateral lenders, political leaders and even the military, which he said generates ”unnecessary” resentment.

He also pointed to the president’s attempts at influencing the media. ”Kirchner does not give interviews, but his presence in the media is definitely felt,” the editor of a weekly publication, who did not want to be identified, commented to IPS.

Berensztein noted that Kirchner enjoys a strong rapport with the public, who pour out in large numbers to see him every time he visits a town or a village. He has also forged strong links with local leaders.

But the president has a conflict-ridden relationship with the central structure of his own Peronist party.

Shortly after his inauguration, he clearly demonstrated that he did not need the support of Eduardo Duhalde, the leader of the powerful Justicialista Party branch in the province of Buenos Aires, who served as interim president for two years before Kirchner was elected.

Even less so did he need the support of the faction of the party that backed Menem’s bid for a third term.

But observers say that when the honeymoon is over and his poll ratings are no longer so glowing, the president may find himself in need of greater backing within his party to push through laws and other measures.