VENEZUELA: Region Cannot Be Indifferent to Referendum

By Humberto Márquez Reprint | | Print |

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Aug 13 2004 (IPS) - It is impossible for Latin America and the United States to be indifferent to Sunday’s recall referendum in Venezuela, which will decide the fate of President Hugo Chávez, who enjoys strong support among leftist movements in Latin America.

A victory by Chávez "would undoubtedly strengthen the alliance that he promotes with the governments of Argentina, Brazil and Cuba, as well as the leftist political and social movements throughout the region," María Teresa Romero, professor of international relations at the Central University of Venezuela, told IPS.

In his last press conference prior to Sunday’s vote, Chávez defended the "strategic alliances" he has woven with Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, other Caribbean nations and fellow members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

"But we have no plan to export our revolution," the president underlined. "Changes like the ones we have seen in Argentina and Brazil, or in Bolivia, are the product of the struggles of their own people, not of any influence from Chávez."

Movements like Brazil’s Landless Workers Movement (MST) and the governing Workers’ Party in Brazil, Argentina’s "piqueteros" (combative organisations of the unemployed), and leftist groups in Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador and Mexico openly back Chávez and have made statements and held rallies expressing that support in the run-up to Venezuela’s referendum.

"A victory by the ‘No’ (which would mean Chávez would complete his term, until January 2007) would encourage those movements, but relations with the countries and blocs in this region would remain essentially unchanged if the ‘Yes’ option wins," and Chávez is removed, said Romero.

To win, the ‘Yes’ option not only needs more votes than the ‘No’ option, but also needs to take more than the nearly 3.8 million votes with which Chávez was elected in 2000.

"The most visible change if the opposition movement replaces Chávez would be strengthened ties with the Andean Community trade bloc (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela), which the president has turned his back on to join the Southern Common Market (Mercosur – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay)" as an associate member, she said.

Chávez calls for the creation of a "multi-polar world", is forging "strategic alliances" with developing countries like China, Iran and Russia, and has sent constant signals of friendship to Spain’s new socialist government.

He is also a fervent advocate of building, in South America, an alternative to the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which is promoted by Washington.

But that is only one of the headaches that a Chávez newly strengthened by visible majority support – if he wins on Sunday as predicted by the polls – would represent for the United States.

The Venezuelan president "has a dream of a continent-wide ‘revolution’ that clashes with Washington’s notion of global security as the top priority since Sep. 11, 2001," political scientist Alberto Garrido commented to IPS.

Over the past three years, Caracas and Washington have disagreed over how to address global security questions, like the U.S.-financed Plan Colombia anti-drug and counterinsurgency strategy in that war-torn country, the global war on terrorism, or the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq after the Sep. 11, 2001 terror attacks on New York and Washington.

Another irritant in relations between Caracas and Washington is the friendship between Chávez and Cuban President Fidel Castro. On Friday the Cuban socialist leader said he had absolutely no doubt Chávez would win on Sunday.

By means of agreements promoted by Chávez, Venezuela supplies Cuba with 53,000 barrels a day of oil on favourable terms, and thousands of Cuban doctors have brought primary health care to Venezuela’s slums through one of Chávez’s social programmes.

The United States has also criticised the Chávez administration on the human rights and civil liberties front, especially regarding the confrontation between the Venezuelan government and local privately owned media outlets, which are fervently anti-Chávez.

Meanwhile, Caracas accused the administration of George W. Bush of providing financing and political support to the opposition in Venezuela, including sectors that have strictly played by the rules of democracy and those involved in the short-lived April 2002 coup d’etat that removed Chávez from power for two days.

The U.S. government, Bush, imperialism and "neo-liberalism" are "the devil" and the true bosses of the Venezuelan opposition, Chávez has reiterated in his pre-referendum campaign.

Chávez blames the United States (as well as right-wing former prime minister of Spain José María Aznar) of backing the military and business leaders who staged the April 2002 coup, after which loyal factions of the military and Chávez’s support base – Venezuela’s poor – returned him to the presidential palace.

Washington denies the allegation.

However, Bush’s rival for the November elections in the United States, Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, criticised the U.S. president for sending signals that encouraged the coup plotters who tried to topple Chávez.

But the other factor to be considered is that Venezuela is one of the United States’ four main suppliers of oil, providing it with more than 1.5 million barrels a day (between 13 and 15 percent of U.S. oil imports), and that there are major U.S. investments in Venezuela’s oil industry and other areas.

The oil market has sent out signals in the past few days, as it became clear that Chávez enjoyed a strong lead in the polls: it would be better for the stability of prices if the president remains in power, because turmoil in the world’s fifth biggest oil exporter could further drive up already soaring prices.

"If the oil is flowing and U.S. investors are happy, this administration isn’t going to do much," Michael Shifter, a Latin America analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue, a prominent think tank in Washington, told IPS in that city. "What the U.S. wants above all else is stability."

In Romero’s view, "that will depend on what kind of victory Chávez wins, if he does win. If it is incontrovertible, and the OAS (Organisation of American States) and Carter Centre agree that it is, Washington will have to change the tone of its relations with Caracas.

"That is why I don’t understand the obstacles" that the electoral authorities have thrown in front of the missions of election observers, she added.

The referendum, in any case, is a democratic test for Latin America. Venezuela is a problem for all of the countries in the region, because of the intense political polarisation and conflict, and now a more conciliatory, democratic and stable process can begin, said Shifter.