THAILAND: As the Thaksin Fever Subsides Disenchantment Sets In

By Marwaan Macan-Markar Reprint | | Print |

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Sep 30 2004 (IPS) - If the sale of political literature provides a clue to the mood among Thailand’s voters, then the country’s prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, may have a reason to worry.

Since its publication this year, ‘Roo Than Thaksin’ has broken all sales records for a work of non-fiction in this country, with 70,000 copies sold. The book, whose title means ‘Seeing Through Thaksin’ in Thai, is now in its third print run.

This publication is a collection of trenchant criticisms of Thaksin’s policies during his tenure in power over the past three-and-a-half years. The writers are an assorted mix of academics, political activists and former diplomats.

But books are not the only indicators that Thaksin is facing a growing tide of disenchantment in the run-up to the next general elections, which could be held on Feb. 13 next year if the prime minister decides to complete his four-year term and not dissolve parliament earlier.

On Tuesday, some of the country’s leading defenders of community, labour and human rights gathered under one banner to launch a political mission with a single aim – to get rid of Thaksin.

Sulak Sivaraksa, a respected Thai intellectual, conveyed the passion among this new group by the speech he delivered, which was titled ‘Take Thaksin Back, Return Our Democracy.’

Thaksin’s ruling Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai – TRT) party must be defeated at the next election, Sulak urged, since his polices have infringed on the people’s dignity and human rights.

More significant for Thaksin, though, are the findings from a recent poll about his popularity. The prime minister had received a 48 percent favourable rating in a poll conducted in 25 of Thailand’s 76 provinces, pollsters from Bangkok’s Assumption University revealed last Thursday.

That marked a 16 percent plunge in Thaksin’s popular ratings from December 2003, when he received a 64 percent approval rating, reflecting the wave of support he was enjoying. The country’s healthy stock market and the ‘feel good’ factor due to the economic climate at the time worked in Thaksin’s favour.

Political scientist Surichai Wun’Gaeo is hardly surprised by the shifting political currents. ”The public is aware that the prime minister has not honoured the promises he made and they are also troubled by the increasing autocratic nature of the government,” Surichai, director of the International Studies Division at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, told IPS.

The electorate, he added, is not falling for some of the government’s gimmicks through savvy marketing and public relations efforts to project an image of successful policy initiatives.

A typical example, he points out, is the government’s handling of the current bird flu crisis, which has left 10 people dead and the chicken industry, that millions of rural farmers depend on for their livelihood, with mounting losses.

While such sentiments have not caused visible panic, the ruling TRT is drafting a blueprint to restore public confidence in it. This campaign, to be launched in October, will shed light on the government’s list of achievements since 2001.

The TRT swept to power with an unprecedented win at the January general elections that year – just short of an absolute majority.

At a party meeting on Tuesday, Thaksin said such efforts would help to ”restore Thai Rak Thai’s popularity to its former heights,” reported ‘The Nation,’ an English language daily.

Yet one powerful group that endorsed the TRT at the 2001 poll has already announced it will be distancing itself from the ruling party’s campaign.

”We are unhappy with the Thai Rak Thai party and will not be supporting them,” Banton Ondam, an adviser to the Assembly of the Poor, told IPS.

The Assembly of the Poor is a coalition of community and grassroots groups in Thailand and has over 100,000 members. The TRT’s pro-poor policies for the 2001 poll to help the country’s rural communities were cheered by this coalition, which fights for Thailand’s underprivileged.

For the forthcoming election, the Assembly wants to ”stop the TRT,” says Banton. ”That is our immediate goal.”

Of the government’s many populist policies, only one – the 30 baht (75 U.S. cents) health scheme – has worked, he asserted.

Under this health scheme, Thais are able to receive medical care for any ailment from state hospitals by paying 30 baht per visit. Creating a village fund for communities to draw from to promote economic activity and a moratorium on debts incurred by farmers were the other two programmes that won the TRT support from the poor in 2001.

Another of the government’s flagship projects to strengthen rural economies – where each village cluster has been encouraged to produce a product that the government will help market – has had mixed results.

”Those from the people’s sector who supported Thaksin at the last election feel let down,” Sunai Phasuk, Thai representative for the New York-based Human Rights Watch, said in an interveiw.

But this shift against a government is part of the pre-election pattern in Thailand, he added. ”Yet the intensity is different. There is more anger because people are learning more about the issues the government has hidden, like its lack of transparency and the conflicts of interest.”