POLITICS-EUROPE: French Preparing to Say No

By Julio Godoy Reprint | | Print |

Julio Godoy

PARIS, May 27 2005 (IPS) - All opinions polls suggest that the majority of French citizens will vote against the European constitution in the referendum May 29.

In such an eventuality analysts say other countries especially the Netherlands, Britain and Poland may then follow the French example.

“A French no to the European constitution on Sunday would first mean the end of this project, but at the same time would provoke a correcting shock across the continent, and would force European governments to draft a new text that better matches peoples’ expectations,” Prof. Jacques Généreux from the Institute of Political Sciences in Paris told IPS.

Généreux, one of numerous French intellectuals campaigning against the Constitution, is author of a bestseller arguing against the constitution.

Opinion polls say 55 percent of French citizens plan to vote against the draft constitution. Surveys also predict a ‘no’ in the referendum to be held in the Netherlands June 1, and in Poland later in the year. Referendums are also due in Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Portugal.

Several European countries have already approved the constitution, either by referendum as in Spain, or through parliaments as in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, and Slovakia.

In France, the referendum has opened up new divisions.

The Socialist Party (PS) is officially supporting the constitution following an internal referendum last December. About 58 percent of PS members said yes to the constitution then. But former prime minister Laurent Fabius who led the party group opposing the constitutional treaty has become the main national voice against the draft constitution.

Similar divisions have taken place to the right of the political spectrum. President Jacques Chirac and his party Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) support the constitution, but other right-wing parties such as the nationalist Movement for France led by Philippe de Villiers oppose it.

De Villiers finds himself on the same side as communist and Trotskyite leaders Marie-Jose Buffet and Olivier Besancenot. De Villiers argues the constitution would reinforce European institutions to the detriment of the French government; Buffet and Besancenot see it as an instrument of corporate power and of radical right-wing economic and social policies.

Chirac warned at a public debate with young voters that “if the French vote against the constitution, France would become the black sheep in Europe.”

Analysts say such arguments have been counterproductive. “In three months of debate, the defenders of the constitution have never succeeded in putting forward positive arguments in favour of the treaty,” the daily Libération wrote. “The arguments in favour of the constitution have been defensive, and lacking in enthusiasm and coherence.”

Opponents of the constitution have meanwhile led a lively campaign. Musicians have composed songs against it, with some lyrics celebrating ‘black sheep’.

Généreux argues that the draft is not a constitution at all.

“By tradition a constitution is a general law that defines the institutional framework of a political entity,” he said. “The treaty proposed to the Europeans goes against this tradition. It has 448 articles, and defines in extreme detail public services, establishing limits to governments’ policies, while giving free play to liberal economic competition in Europe.”

Généreux said the draft would be impossible to amend because changes can be made only by unanimous decisions. “Right now it is impossible to reach unanimity in the European Union with its present 25 members. In the future, when the EU will have some 30 members, unanimity shall be even more difficult to reach..”

Beyond the influence the French vote would have on European developments, the referendum will have consequences for France’s domestic politics. Practically all analysts believe that a rejection of the constitution would be an expression of discontent with the government of Chirac.

One poll this week said that less than 30 percent people support the government of Chirac and prime minister Jean Pierre Rafarin. A ‘no’ could mean that Chirac will dismiss Rafarin and make a radical cabinet reshuffle.

In an editorial comment in Libération, editor-in-chief Serge July went further to demand that Chirac dissolves parliament and calls new elections later this year. That way, he said, “French voters will know before Sunday that they can vote twice: first, for or against the constitution, and later, for or against the incumbent government.”