POLITICS: Japan Wary of North Korean Nuclear Deal

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Sep 20 2005 (IPS) - A day-old nuclear disarmament deal with North Korea already threatens to come unstuck, with Japan joining other negotiating countries in disagreeing with a demand by Pyongyang for a light-water nuclear reactor for its civilian programme.

On Tuesday, Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura criticised North Korea after Pyongyang released a statement saying it will not dismantle its nuclear programme unless given the light-water nuclear reactor first.

Machimura termed the demand by Pyongyang as “unacceptable”, and pointed out that Japan, and other countries at the negotiating table, had stressed that the subject of a new reactor would be discussed only “at an appropriate time”.

China, which hosted the difficult negotiations in Beijing, as well as the United States, which played a lead role, have already reacted to the new demand by saying Pyongyang must stick to Monday’s agreement by which North Korea was to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for economic aid and security guarantees.

The six parties, including Russia and South Korea, first began negotiations in 2003 after Pyongyang announced withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Monday’s agreement did not specify deadlines and the parties are scheduled to meet again in November to finalise modalities and time-frames.

South Korea, which is to provide electricity to the North under the deal, continued to be optimistic and President Roh Moo-hyun reportedly said that the chances for a resolution of the vexed nuclear issue were still brighter than ever before.

Analysts here contend the new sabre-rattling represents a typical “morning after” while dealing with Stalinist North Korea, one of the world’s last bastions of communism.

”Distrust runs deep, especially in Japan where bilateral relations with North Korea have dipped even lower in the recent past after the abduction of Japanese nationals by the ruthless regime in that country. An agreement, however historic, will certainly not convince the Japanese that North Korea has changed,” said Katsumi Sato, director of Modern Korea, a leading and conservative think tank in Japan.

Sato rejected the new agreement as a ruse on the part of Pyongyang and referred to similar promises in the past that were also broken by the totalitarian regime.

For instance, after North Korea quit the NPT, it went ahead and boosted its nuclear capabilities.

“North Korea is buying time to build up its nuclear weapons and strengthen the hold of the current murderous regime and we must not be duped,” insisted Sato.

Yet, some analysts pointed out that the joint-statement issued in Beijing is the first breakthrough in the six-party process, launched in August 2003, and will serve as a base for future negotiations on implementation.

“There is no doubt the agreement is a historic step in going ahead with the larger goal of achieving a nuclear weapon-free Korean peninsula. The situation would have been far worse if nothing came forward at Beijing,” points out Masanori Okonogi, a respected Korean expert at the prestigious Keio University in Tokyo.

According to Okonogi, the next crucial step would be to keep up the negotiations and make sure the new breakthrough and momentum is not lost again.

“Yes, the record with North Korea is patchy. But this time North Korea has shown more compromise, such as a separate agreement with Japan towards normalising bilateral relations. There is no excuse now to give up,” he says.

Okonogi also stressed the importance of the upcoming meeting in November as crucial to move ahead.

In the statement, the U.S., Russia, Japan and South Korea promised to provide energy assistance to North Korea as well as economic cooperation in the fields of trade and investment, bilaterally and multilaterally.

In a separate agreement with Japan, both nations agreed to work to solve the thorny historical issues and revive the bilateral Pyongyang Declaration, signed in 2002, that was in cold storage till now.

The mixed reading of Monday’s statement is based on several developments in East Asian security in the recent past.

A major change in East Asian diplomacy is the younger leadership in South Korea that has been fostering a more friendly and cooperative relationship with North Korea.

The rise of China’s status in the region as an economic power, eager to exercise its leadership, has also tipped the scales in favour of promoting a more inclusive stance towards North Korea rather than a hardline approach, as was practiced by Washington and Japan.

Sato says the latest breakthrough is indicative of how the U.S. is backing away from putting too much pressure on North Korea as well.

“With the Iraq war and domestic problems at home, Washington is not keen on wielding the axe in East Asia, and North Korea has benefited as a result,” he says.

The Japanese media, representing national sentiment, have not praised the new agreement. The Yomiuri newspaper, the largest daily, reminds readers that the six-party talks have not reached a resolution.

“There is no way ties between Japan and North Korea can be normalised unless North Korea shows a forward-looking stance at bilateral talks in the days ahead,” warned the newspaper.

Says international relations expert, Sakura Sakakibara at the Mitsui Global Strategies Centre,” The latest statement is a masterpiece in international diplomacy in the sense that all the six countries involved did not lose face. But actual results remain illusive and vague, leaving a bad taste in the mouth despite the euphoria”.