BALKANS: From Teargas to Software

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Oct 3 2005 (IPS) - “Where exactly were you on October 5?” That is a question much doing the rounds in Serbia these days.

They are asking about the day five years ago when almost a million people took to the streets in a peaceful protest that brought the fall of former president Slobodan Milosevic.

People recall the teargas the police used that day, and the people’s triumph that followed when Milosevic was forced to step down later in the evening. He had earlier refused to admit electoral defeat in the presidential elections Sep. 24.

The Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) whose candidate Vojislav Kostunica had won the election organised the unprecedented protest.

“It was a historic event, but it was only the prelude to this country’s long road down the path of regained normalcy,” historian Predrag Markovic told IPS.

Historians, analysts and experts of all kinds are racing to judge the event. Many round table meetings, conferences, panel discussions and media editorials have been dedicated to it.

“October 5 was one of the most important events in recent Serbian history,” analyst Slobodan Antonic said in an interview. “The people had simply had enough.”

Milosevic’s rule since 1989 was marked by three wars of disintegration of former Yugoslavia, in the former federal republics Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia.

Later, his oppression of ethnic Albanians provoked the 11-week North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombing of Serbia, still one of the most traumatic events in the lives of many.

Serbia became a pariah state, excluded from all international organisations and institutions, and punished by strict United Nations (UN) economic sanctions. It was re-admitted to the UN and the Organisation for European Security and Cooperation, and allowed access to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund only after Milosevic fell from power.

Last Thursday European Union (EU) ambassadors in Brussels agreed that talks should be opened with Serbia on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), the first formal link with a view to union membership for a country.

The agreements cover cooperation in justice and home affairs as well as economic and financial assistance, and are an important political signal for any aspiring EU member, the EU statement said. Belgrade welcomed the decision as a major political victory..

“But regardless of political changes at home, the most positive effect since October 5 is in the area of the economy, completely devastated in the times of Milosevic’s rule,” analyst Misa Brkic told IPS.

In the years of isolation, the only functioning segments of Serbian economy were agriculture, electricity production and telecommunications. Its factories remained idle under strict international sanctions. All trade was banned, including import of raw materials.

Over the past years production has been revived where possible, with the help of international financial institutions. Privatisation has brought almost two billion dollars into the treasury. Foreign investment through privatisation is worth about 1.2 billion dollars.

“Serbia will witness an investment boom,” United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) official Jasna Matic said at a press conference last week. “The next year will be the most successful, due to privatisation of the remaining state-owned public companies..”

Serbia is expected to complete a privatisation process over the next 18 months.

But the transition to a market economy has been a painful process. Unemployment stands at almost 30 percent. With help from foreign aid, the state has been able to offer some compensation to thousands who lost their jobs.

“For decades, during communist rule, everybody expected the state to take care of all their needs,” Bozidar Djelic, the first post-Milosevic finance minister told Belgrade media. “For many people now it’s hard to think that they should take care of themselves.”

Many have succeeded. Small business is flourishing. Last year 10,000 new crafts shops were registered in Belgrade. The Belgrade chamber of commerce described it as “miracle” and a lifeline for thousands of families.

“But many people remain disappointed, because they expected a quick recovery and the nice life they had before Milosevic,” Markovic said. “But things cannot change overnight after a decade of devastation.”

The average monthly salary has risen to 200 dollars a month from 50 dollars in the Milosevic days. “It’s not much, but it is four times more,” Brkic said. “In 2000, one had to give almost 4.5 salaries for a fridge, now it’s one.”

An indication of Serbia’s road to recovery was last week’s decision by Microsoft to base one of its global development centres in Belgrade. It is only the third such centre in the emerging markets, after China and India.

“It’s been a really long road we took in the past five years – from teargas to Microsoft,” said Ljiljana Pavlovic (54), a Belgrade elementary school teacher.