Headlines, Latin America & the Caribbean

ARGENTINA: Kirchner Would Have a Good Chance of Reelection in 2007

Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Mar 27 2006 (IPS) - If Argentina’s presidential elections were held today, with the economy growing at a brisk pace and unemployment steadily dropping, President Néstor Kirchner would be reelected, according to pollsters.

But while the centre-left leader is considering the possibility, he has refused to clearly state whether or not he plans to run in the 2007 elections.

The Kirchner administration, which began in May 2003, can boast of three years of average gross domestic product (GDP) growth of nine percent, an unemployment rate in continuous decline, a restructuring of the heavy foreign debt, a controlled inflation rate, a budget surplus, a reduction in poverty and a rise in investment.

In a survey carried out for the government by the Analogías polling firm, headed by Analía del Franco, 70 percent of respondents approved of the idea of Kirchner running for reelection, and more than 50 percent said they would vote for him.

Del Franco told IPS that the survey was contracted by the government, but that her “client” decided not to make the results public.

Nevertheless, del Franco confirmed that she was hired to measure what would happen if the president decided to run for a second term.

“No decision has been made, but if he decided to stand, he would win comfortably,” said the analyst. She also noted the significance of the high level of support expressed in a country where voters tend to be wary of a president’s zeal to win a second term.

The lack of a solid, well-structured opposition contributed to the poll results, said del Franco. She and other observers say opposition leaders on both the left and the right, as well as in the centre, have no clearly defined agenda but merely react to the steps taken by the government.

Del Franco said the decision not to release the results of the poll could form part of a deliberate strategy. “Starting to talk about this too early would not send out a good signal. At this early point, it is better to merely know what the statistics say while continuing to strengthen the administration,” she said.

What Kirchner has repeatedly underscored in public is that his term ends in 2007.

But according to press reports that have not been refuted, he believes that the best candidate to succeed him would be his wife, Senator Cristina Fernández.

However, political analyst Joaquín Morales Solá, a columnist for the newspaper “La Nación”, wrote that it would be hard to imagine a politician who has accumulated power like Kirchner simply handing it over a year from now. “Kirchner is having fun playing around with the question of his wife being a candidate, but he’ll go for reelection,” according to Morales Solá.

Under the Argentine constitution, which was amended in 1994, the president can hold only two consecutive four-year terms, but can stand for a third term or more after an interval of at least one term.

Kirchner was elected in 2003 with just 22 percent of the vote, having lost the chance to gauge his support in a runoff election, from which his rival, former president Carlos Menem (1989-1999), withdrew in the face of sure defeat.

But the relatively unknown Kirchner quickly restored the authority and credibility of the presidency, which had been badly eroded by the late 2001 financial and political collapse and ensuing economic crisis. Within just a few months, support for his administration doubled, and it remains high as he approaches the end of his third year in office.

In a front-page article titled “The Eternal Kirchner”, the magazine Noticias maintained this month that the president and his wife hope to alternate in power until 2019.

The article outlines a series of steps to be taken by the president and his associates with a view to the 2007 elections, such as a giant rally on May 25 to mark Kirchner’s third anniversary in office, to be convened by a poster campaign.

More direct means are also being used: posters in stadiums and graffiti reading “Kirchner for President: 2007-2011”.

“It is not necessary to talk about reelection because it is fairly obvious,” politician Roberto Porcaro, a Kirchner loyalist, admitted to the magazine. “Kirchner is waiting for it to become a natural development, for people to ask him to run again.”

And the stage for that request will be set on May 25.

The Analogías poll also asked respondents to express their views on an eventual candidacy of Senator Fernández. That alternative began to be discussed after the October 2005 legislative elections, when the president’s wife won a landslide victory in her run for the Senate, and Kirchner scored a major triumph and gained a strengthened mandate.

Interior Minister Aníbal Fernández said the first lady was “potential presidential material” after she took twice as many votes as her well-known rival Hilda González Duhalde in the province of Buenos Aires, which is home to 40 percent of all Argentine voters.

Kirchner has quoted former U.S. president Bill Clinton (1993-2001), who assured voters in his 1992 campaign that if they elected him, they would get “two for the price of one.” Clinton was referring to his wife Hillary, who is now a senator and a possible contender for president in 2008.

Political analyst Rosendo Fraga, with the New Majority Studies Centre, a political research group in Buenos Aires, said it was likely that Kirchner would make his wife his vice-presidential running-mate in 2007.

However, other observers say she might stand for governor of Buenos Aires province.

If Fernández were elected governor, that would allow her to prove her mettle and would improve her chances of running for the presidency in 2011.

But to achieve that, the country’s economy will have to continue its upward swing, stressed Fraga, who warned that otherwise, Kirchner and his wife would have little chance of winning any elections.