Asia-Pacific, Civil Society, Headlines, Human Rights

POLITICS-THAILAND: Junta Prefers Polls Minus Rallies

Marwaan Macan-Markar

BANGKOK, Mar 30 2007 (IPS) - Thailand’s journey back to democracy may prove to be a rough one since the military-appointed government and the junta are in two minds about the space for public demonstrations.

The week drew to a close with the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont announcing the all-important dates for the next parliamentary elections, either Dec. 16 or 23. It will follow a referendum in September to approve the new constitution being drafted – the country’s 18th since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

Yet the offering of this political carrot had an accompanying stick. The Mar. 29 announcement of polls coincided with the government indicating the possibility of imposing harsh emergency laws to deal with opposition voices holding rallies critical of the junta. The latter seized power in a Sep. 19 coup, which unseated prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

‘’Now we are trying to create a good understanding among different groups in society in order not to let the situation develop into a national crisis,” Surayud was quoted as having said in ‘The Nation’ newspaper on Friday. ‘’I don’t want to see confrontations or a showdown between Thai people.”

But the English-language daily added that the premier has ‘’also decided not to declare a state of emergency at the moment, but he would do that if he had no options left.”

A few days earlier, Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the junta chief, had urged the government to re-impose the state of emergency in the Thai capital to curtail the growing number of anti-coup groups holding rallies on weekends. The largest protests have drawn 2,000 to 3,000 people in Bangkok. They have included groups that support deposed Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT – Thais Love Thai) party and pro-democracy groups.

Those involved in anti-coup street protests refuse to buy the official line that demonstrations urging more democracy will spark violence. ‘’History is on our side, since in the past protests never turned violent, but the violence came from the state cracking down on demonstrators,” says Pokpong Lawansiri of the 19 September Network against the Coup. ‘’These threats are curtailing our right to free expression.”

‘’It is normal to have groups coming out on the streets and criticising the government before an election,” he told IPS. ‘’We would oppose any kind of restrictions on people demonstrating.”

Political analysts also question the government’s wisdom to possibly invoke an emergency law to quell protests ahead of the referendum and the polls. ‘’You can’t have free and fair elections if you ban protests,” Giles Ungpakorn, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said in an interview. ‘’It will only increase an already tense environment.”

Thailand last witnessed a violent showdown between pro-democracy groups and the military in the early 1990s. It stemmed from the ruling junta of the day refusing to return the country to democracy, resulting in a bloody military crackdown.

In fact, some see the announcement of election dates this year as an attempt by the Surayud administration to cool political tempers rising over a slew of questionable moves that will do little for the country’s democratic credentials. Among them is the still unresolved question of whether a prime minister should be elected or appointed.

‘’The announcement to hold elections this year could be an attempt by the government to buy peace and quiet for the rest of the remaining time,” Michael Nelson, a German academic specialising in Thai political culture, told IPS. ‘’There are many unresolved political questions the government is grappling with.”

Such an outcome was far from what the coup-makers and their appointed government had in mind as they set to meet the promise of reclaiming Thai democracy that had taken a beating during the five years of the Thaksin government. Although elected with thumping majorities, the successive TRT administrations did little to strengthen this South-east Asian nation’s young democracy. Critics charged Thaksin with using his parliamentary mandate to undermine independent institutions that check political abuse, in addition to indulging in nepotism and corruption.

But over six months after the coup, the junta and its appointed administration are struggling to retain the public goodwill they enjoyed at the outset. Recent opinion polls have seen government popularity plunge below the 50 percent mark, and sliding down further.

No wonder sections of the Thai civil society that fought to get rid of Thaksin are urging the government to be more receptive to public sentiments to restore its credibility than to shut the door to the mood on the street. ‘’The government and the (junta) should give people more say on what they want. I think opening up more channels for people to vent their opinions will make the political atmosphere better,” Surapong Kongchantuek, a member of the Lawyers Council of Thailand, was quoted as saying by the ‘Bangkok Post’ daily on Friday.