Headlines, Middle East & North Africa, Nuclear Energy - Nuclear Weapons, Peace

POLITICS: A Thaw in Egypt-Iran Relations?

Adam Morrow

CAIRO, Jun 22 2006 (IPS) - The recent visit to the Egyptian capital by a high-level Iranian official has reignited speculation about the state of Egyptian-Iranian diplomatic relations, officially frozen since 1979. Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is the highest ranking Iranian official to visit Egypt in the last 27 years.

The question is whether the visit was part of a true effort by Iran to renew diplomatic ties or a bid to reassure neighbours about its nuclear programme.

Larijani, who is also Tehran’s chief negotiator on the contentious issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, stopped in Cairo last week during a regional tour in which he also visited Algeria and Yemen.

He held closed meetings here with President Hosni Mubarak, Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa. According to press reports, discussions focused on recent developments regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, regional issues – particularly Iraq and Palestine – and the stalled Egypt-Iran relationship.

Tehran severed diplomatic relations with Cairo in 1979 after former president Anwar Sadat signed the Camp David peace agreement with Israel. Egypt further alienated the nascent Islamic Republic later the same year by granting political asylum to freshly deposed Shah Mohamed Reza Pahlavi.

“My being here is proof of our respect for Egypt’s role, and this respect is mutual,” Larijani was quoted as saying in the state press. “We hope that these issues [stalled relations] are solved in due time.”

At a press conference on Jun. 18, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi expressed appreciation for Egypt’s position – along with those of Algeria and Yemen – regarding Tehran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology. He went on to tell the Iranian Fars News Agency that Larijani’s visit to Egypt had “helped improve ties with Cairo,” prompting some observers to speculate on the prospect of renewed diplomatic relations.

Analysts, however, say the visit had more to do with the outstanding nuclear issue than with bilateral relations. “Larijani’s visit represents an attempt by Iran to send a message to Arab countries that the Iranian nuclear project won’t pose a threat,” said Emad Gad, an analyst at the state-run Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. “Tehran would also like to dissuade the Arab states from taking the American position on the matter.”

For more than a year, the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme has been the focus of enormous pressure from Washington, which has said it will never tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. Tehran, however, insists its nuclear programme is intended solely for the peaceful use of atomic energy.

On Jun. 6, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, proposed several incentives – approved by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany – in exchange for Iran’s total suspension of uranium enrichment activity. Tehran’s announcement that it would respond to the offer “after needed studies are carried out”, however, drew the ire Washington. “It shouldn’t take the Iranians that long to analyse what is a reasonable deal,” U.S. President George W. Bush said Wednesday.

According to observers, Larijani’s Cairo visit must be viewed within this context. “The visit was part of Iran’s strategy for deflecting U.S. pressure over its nuclear programme,” said Cairo-based political analyst Simon Kitchen, who pointed out that Larijani himself generally dealt with issues of national security rather than diplomatic relations. “It’s also part of a longer term strategy of rehabilitating Iran’s relations with Arab countries.”

Cairo, meanwhile, has consistently called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, while simultaneously urging – along with most other Arab governments – that Israel’s formidable nuclear arsenal be made the subject of greater international scrutiny.

As for notions of rapprochement, there have been false starts in the past. In December 2003, a brief meeting between Mubarak and former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami in Geneva inspired predictions of imminent diplomatic reconciliation. Speculation was fueled further when Khatami, upon returning to Tehran, told the official IRNA news agency that “relations between the two countries should be promoted”.

The Egyptian foreign ministry stated at the time that the eventual resumption of diplomatic ties was “a natural result of current developments” in bilateral relations.

But momentum quickly stalled, with both sides stressing the impracticality of rushing headlong into a full diplomatic embrace. According to analysts, the budding friendship was derailed when the municipality of Tehran – headed at the time by current Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad – refused to rename a street in the capital named after Sadat’s assassin, Khaled Islambouli, which Cairo had long cited as a precondition for renewed diplomatic ties.

“The failure to rename Khaled Islambouli Street reflected broad divisions within Iran about reconciliation with Egypt,” said Kitchen. “And Ahmedinejad – given the things he says – isn’t the kind of person who would have assented to a move like that.”

Ultimately, say analysts, the recent Larijani visit appears to have had more to do with regional power politics and less to do with bilateral relations. “The visit was most likely about the nuclear issue and the situation in Iraq,” said Kitchen. “Not about reconciliation.”

According to Gad, the question of renewed Egyptian-Iranian ties is, in any event, an academic one. “Cairo can’t resume diplomatic relations with Iran unless Egypt gets a clear-cut green light from Washington,” he said. “Egyptian diplomacy towards Iran can’t be independent – it’s part of a larger network, led by the United States.”