EGYPT: Mubarak Brings Up Peaceful Nuclear Programme Again

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani

CAIRO, Nov 19 2007 (IPS) - Late last month, President Hosni Mubarak reiterated Egypt&#39s intention to launch a peaceful nuclear programme to offset rising domestic energy demand.

While some analysts say the plan makes good economic sense, other observers saw the declaration as little more than propaganda for the President&#39s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

The President&#39s announcement was made for domestic political reasons," Ahmed Thabet, professor of political science at Cairo University told IPS. "By announcing an ambitious plan for nuclear power, Mubarak hopes to bolster the ruling party&#39s popularity."

On Oct. 29 Mubarak announced plans to establish a national programme for the production of nuclear energy, to include the construction of several nuclear power stations. Heavily quoted in the state press, the President stressed that energy security represented "a major part of building a future for the country and an integral part of Egypt&#39s national security system."

Mubarak went on to say that skyrocketing international oil and gas prices had made the pursuit of alternative energy sources "imperative".

Shortly afterwards, chairman of Egypt&#39s Nuclear Energy Agency Ali Islam Metwali was quoted as saying that Egypt&#39s first nuclear reactor would be operational within eight years, at an estimated cost of 1.5 billion dollars. While the first reactor would be owned and operated solely by the state, Metwali noted that the participation of the private sector "could not be ruled out" in subsequent projects.

Officials are quick to point out that envisaged nuclear energy production would be for peaceful purposes only as stipulated in the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty, to which Egypt is signatory. Under the treaty&#39s terms, member nations are allowed to build nuclear power stations for peaceful purposes on the condition that they are subject to international supervision.

In an indication of the government&#39s seriousness, cabinet ministers officially agreed on Oct. 31 to implement a presidential decree establishing a Supreme Council for the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy. To be headed by the President, the council will also consist of ten ministers with relevant portfolios, including defence, finance and electricity.

According to the Nov. 1 edition of state daily al-Ahram, the council is mandated with "establishing the programme for securing nuclear facilities and studying international agreements governing the peaceful use of nuclear energy."

There is little doubt that the government is in desperate need of alternative power sources to meet rising domestic demand for energy.

Cairo is currently spending roughly 50 billion Egyptian pounds (approximately 9.3 billion dollars) a year to provide the growing populace with subsidised energy. With global prices for fossil fuels continuing to hit new record highs, this figure is only expected to increase further.

According to Hamdi Abdel-Azim, economist and former head of the Cairo- based Sadat Academy, the availability of nuclear energy – which can be converted into electricity for general use – could eventually offset these rising energy costs.

"Nuclear energy is a much cheaper alternative for producing electricity," Abdel-Azim told IPS. "In fact, it&#39s 60 percent cheaper to produce electricity from nuclear energy plants than it is to produce it from petroleum-fuelled plants."

The move would not represent Egypt&#39s first foray into the nuclear arena.

In 1963, then president Gamal Abdel-Nasser issued a decision to build the country&#39s first nuclear power station, but the project was derailed by war with Israel four years later. A second attempt in 1986 was also aborted after the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine prompted a successful anti-nuclear campaign by opposition parliamentarians.

Mubarak&#39s recent declaration comes just over a year since a similar announcement by the President&#39s prominent son, Gamal Mubarak, who is widely seen as a likely successor to the presidency. In September of last year, Gamal – who is also NDP assistant secretary-general – articulated a highly publicised proposal to revive Egypt&#39s long-stalled nuclear programme.

"It&#39s time for Egypt to put forth this proposal for discussion about the issue of alternative energy, including nuclear energy," the younger Mubarak said at the time.

Quoted shortly afterwards in al-Ahram, minister of electricity and energy Hassan Younis offered more details. "The programme for the peaceful use of nuclear energy will involve several plants in different regions in order to guarantee the flow of electricity needed for development activities," Younis said.

Some independent observers, however, take a more cynical view of the ruling party&#39s sudden interest in alternative energy. They point out that the President&#39s recent announcement came only five days before the NDP&#39s annual party congress, at which presidential scion Gamal Mubarak was heavily promoted.

"The timing of the nuclear announcement just before the party congress was aimed at boosting Gamal Mubarak&#39s popularity in the eyes of both the army and the people," said Thabet. "Right now, the regime is only thinking about securing Gamal&#39s political legitimacy – not about the country&#39s long-term energy needs."

Thabet also rejected the notion that Egypt&#39s stated nuclear ambitions were intended to counter Iran&#39s contentious nuclear programme.

"Iran has surpassed Egypt&#39s influence in the Middle East, politically and strategically," he said. "Egypt needs to do more than just build a peaceful nuclear energy capacity if it wants to regain its leading role in the region."