POLITICS-IRAQ: Shaky Chirac Still Opposes War

By Julio Godoy Reprint | | Print |

Julio Godoy

PARIS, Feb 6 2003 (IPS) - The French government is still asking for a diplomatic solution in Iraq in the face of a new Anglo-American diplomatic offensive to back war.

The pressure on President Jacques Chirac to support war is rising both internationally and domestically. Chirac is sticking to his diplomatic guns, but amid increasing signs of discomfort.

Chirac and foreign minister Dominique de Villepin both stuck to the view this week that UN (United Nations) inspection of Iraqi arsenals should continue.

"France is convinced that between a war to disarm Iraq and insufficient weapons inspections there is third way," De Villepin told French journalists after the extraordinary session of the Security Council in New York. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell presented what he called definitive evidence at the session that Iraq has violated UN resolutions.

"This third way is an intensification of the inspections," De Villepin said. "The international community can send reconnaissance planes over Iraq, and double or triple the number of inspectors, to see that the UN resolution 1441 is honoured."

De Villepin said, however, that France would support military action if the Iraqi regime refuses to cooperate with the UN inspections.

After a meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair Tuesday Chirac did not rule out the possibility that as a permanent member of the UN Security Council France could use its right of veto against U.S. war plans. "When the time for it comes, and under the given circumstances, France will take the necessary decision," he said in reply to a question.

"France is ready to increase financial, personnel, and technical support to the UN inspections," Chirac said. He effectively rejected Blair’s attempts to win immediate support from France for a second UN resolution to sanction military action against Iraq. Chirac called the U.S. doctrine of pre-emptive war "extremely dangerous."

France played a leading role in taking the matter to the UN Security Council in the first place. The French then played a central role in drafting resolution 1441 which urges the Iraqi regime to cooperate actively with the new round of weapons inspections.

Chirac pointed out earlier during Franco-German friendship celebrations January 22 that the two share the same viewpoint on the Iraqi crisis. But while the German government has declared it will not take part in a war against Iraq even if the UN Security Council sanctions it, Chirac has left open the possibility of war "as a last resort."

Chirac has come under attack for suggesting that France shares the German view. "I don’t understand why Chirac did that," says Guillaume Parmentier, director of the French Centre for U.S. Studies. "It simply isn’t true."

Dominique Moisi, deputy director of the French Centre for International Studies (IFRI, after its French name), says "France is talking like Germany, but behaving like the United Kingdom." Chirac has ordered the French army to be prepared for a new war against Iraq, Moisi says.

Earlier this week the French nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was sent to participate in joint manoeuvres with the U.S. navy within striking range of Iraq. French Mirage jets have been engaged in exercises in Qatar for weeks.

French policy is based on the assumption that there will be no war, Moisi says. "This is a dangerous bet," he says. "If the U.S. government does not give up its plans to overthrow Saddam, France will have to readjust its policy, and this readjustment will be difficult, and hard to justify."

Philippe Moreau Defarges, also with IFRI says France will rally behind the U.S. war plans. "The priority of being a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) member will prevail over the idea of resolving a conflict by diplomatic means."

Patrick Sabatier, diplomatic analyst with the daily Libération says France is "cornered" over Iraq. All French options are bad, and Chirac is in a shaky position, he says. "If Chirac uses the French veto, he would only prove the UN powerless in the face of the superpower because the veto will not stop the U.S.," he says. "At the same time, France would put herself out of business."

On the other hand, if Chirac rallies behind the U.S., "he would reduce himself to a caricature, and confirm the worst suspicions towards him and France," Sabatier says. "Additionally, the political cost in France and in the Arab world would be terrible."

There are signs that Chirac is losing support for his diplomatic options. Most analysts continue to dismiss U.S. plans on Iraq as a neo-colonial war to take possession of Iraqi oil reserves, but leading members of the government are now publishing articles to suggest that France should ally with the U.S.

Alain Madelin, a senior member of Chirac’s right-wing party Union for a Popular Movement (UMP after its French name), wrote that "France has no alternative" if it is to choose between U.S. President George Bush and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"Our place is at the side of the U.S.," Madelin argued. "Its cause is ours. To free Iraq is to lay the foundation stone of modernity in the Middle East."

As a last diplomatic chance France could negotiate a 30-day ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, says conservative historian Justin Vaisse. "Either he gives up his weapons of mass destruction and goes into exile, or risks war," Vaisse says. "In that case, the war would not be the failure of France, but Saddam’s own fault."