POLITICS: New Approach Needed to Prevent Conflict

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Dec 9 1997 (IPS) - The world needs a new comprehensive approach to preventing conflicts – including a U.N. rapid reaction force of 5,000 to 10,000 troops – says a report by a global commission of experts on conflict, released here Tuesday.

The group, from the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, stresses that any successful strategy must address root causes of conflict, including poverty and social inequities, as well as operational measures, such as early warning systems and intensified diplomacy with leaders of warring groups.

It also calls for all institutions in society, including schools, the media, business and governments, to create a “culture of prevention.” “The prevention of deadly conflict must become a commonplace of daily life and part of a global cultural heritage passed down from generation to generation,” the report says.

The 257-page report represents a compilation of recommendations voiced by experts since the end of the Cold War. “We reached out to the best ideas,” said David Hamburg, co-chairman of the group, which met over a three-year period.

In situations where imminent violence is threatened, the Commission calls for four possible kinds of measures to prevent violence, including early warning and response; preventive diplomacy; economic pressure; and the use or threat of force.

The Commission, which was created after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, included some of the world’s most experienced diplomats, including former US secretary of state Cyrus Vance; former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans; former Canadian foreign minister Flora MacDonald; former Norwegian prime minister Gro Harlem Brundtland; and former UN under-secretary-general Sir Brian Urquhart.

Heavily weighted towards experts from North America and Canada, the 16-member panel also included Virendra Dayal, chef du cabinet for two UN secretaries-general; Olara Otunnu, the president of the International Peace Academy; Shridath Ramphal, cochair of the Commission on Global Governance; and Sahabzada Yaqub-Khan, chairman of the Aga Khan University in Pakistan.

The Commission’s basic message is that “deadly conflict is not inevitable” but can only be addressed successfully by a multi- faceted approach which, like sound public health strategies, addresses both operational tactics and structural causes of the problem.

It says the urgency of addressing the problem is becoming ever greater due to improvements in technology that permit leaders to communicate justifications for violence more widely and that increase the destructive power of weapons and their proliferation. “The world is undergoing a vast increase in killing power,” said Hamburg.

It also notes that conflict is now taking place almost exclusively within countries. In such conflicts, according to the report, “more civilians are killed than soldiers (by one estimate at the rate of about nine to one), and belligerents use strategies and tactics that deliberately target women, children, the poor and the weak.”

The report stresses that early warning – usually indicated by widespread human rights abuses or the inflammatory use of media – is often easy to obtain, especially from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) active in the country involved. In recent conflicts, however, “the problem is less of early warning than of early action” by the international community.

Such early action should include intensified diplomacy with key actors. “States should resist the traditional urge to suspend diplomatic relations as a substitute for action and instead main open, high-fidelity lines of communication with leaders and groups in crisis,” according to the report.

Sanctions, backed up by forceful measures to ensure compliance, may often be helpful, but must be made part of a broader “influence strategy” that puts maximum pressure on the offending parties while minimising the suffering of innocent civilians. Similarly, “conditionality,” including the promise of reward for responsible behaviour can serve as “a powerful source of leverage,” it says.

Finally, the threat or use of force may be appropriate if it is integrated into an overall political strategy and backed up by the will to follow through at critical moments. Examples range from traditional peacekeeping operations and preventive deployments, such as the UN force which has monitored the border between Serbia and Macedonia since 1992, to the more-controversial “fire brigade’ forces to intervene directly in countries on the verge of civil war.

In the last case, the Commission says such a force should consist of some 5,000 to 10,000 troops, the core of which would be contributed by members of the UN Security Council. The force, which has been opposed by Washington since its intervention in Somalia, should operate under the Security Council’s authority, and its deployment should be subject to a veto by any of the permanent members.

As to structural prevention, the Commission calls for stepped up measures against weapons of mass destruction, including taking nuclear weapons out of active deployment, and new efforts to control the flow of conventional arms. It also strongly urges that the international community address the root causes of civil conflict, particularly poverty and injustice.

“The combination of deprivation and discrimination makes situations very volatile,” said Jane Holl, the Commission’s staff director.

The Commission also stresses the importance of justice in at- risk societies and endorses the creation of an international criminal court to try those responsible for instigating or carrying out mass violence.

Among other recommendations, the report calls for enlarging the UN Security Council to better reflect the world’s needs as well as its capacities; the adoption of a stronger role by the secretary- general in mobilising resources to prevent conflicts, the development by media of standards of conduct in crisis coverage; and the establishment by the international community of a presumption that governments which take power by force should not be recognised.