POLITICS-US: Mid-term Elections Unlikely to Bring Change

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Nov 2 1998 (IPS) - American voters go to the polls Tuesday for mid-term elections and, despite months of media hype over President Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, are expected to make little change to the U.S. political scene.

Analysts believe that Republicans will make modest gains in both houses of Congress but nothing like the landslide they anticipated as recently as one month ago – when many Democratic candidates actively shunned Clinton, even rejecting his offers to visit their constituencies.

“What we (in Washington) have thought to be issues of enormous importance, developments of tremendous significance, have proven less so,” notes Thomas Mann, director of governmental studies at the independent Brookings Institution.

On the other hand, major gains by Republicans – still not fully discounted by some analysts – could cripple Clinton’s presidency and possibly deal a fatal blow to Vice President Al Gore’s hopes of succeeding him in 2000.

“If this turns out to be a banner Republican year, it will be impossible to stop the impeachment process,” according to Mann.

A key factor, as in all U.S. elections, will be turnout which is expected to be quite low this year. Most observers predict that about 35-37 percent of eligible voters will bother going to the polls.

If the turnout is less than one-third, however, the results could spell disaster for the Democrats who historically do better when more people vote – particularly African-Americans.

At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently enjoy a ten-seat majority, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate, where Republicans currently outnumber Democrats 55-45.

A Republican gain of five seats in the Senate, which would give the “Grand Old Party” (GOP) the ability to cut off debate and force votes on controversial issues strongly opposed by Democrats, was deemed possible as recently as 10 days ago – mainly because 18 of the seats that are up for grabs are now held by Democrats.

The Democrats, however, made late gains in the polls to dampen Republican hopes and most analysts believe the GOP is more likely to pick up about two seats in the Senate, thus reducing their prospects of steamrolling their agenda when Congress reconvenes next year.

On the House side, the results could be even more disappointing, particularly for House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has guided Republican election strategy and hoped to use major gains as a springboard for the party’s presidential nomination in 2000.

It was he and the Christian Right – credited or blamed depending on the political viewpoint – for trying to convert the election into a referendum on Clinton’s moral character.

That strategy, designed to energise the party’s right-wing base, appears to have backfired in recent days as the polls show an increase not only in Democratic support but also in the determination of Democrats to go to the polls.

Earlier this month, Gingrich predicted picking up possibly 40 House seats but analysts now believe that the GOP could gain anywhere from no seats at all to six or seven at most. In the last few days, some experts even have suggested that the Democrats may actually gain a couple of seats.

Historically, the party which does not occupy the White House makes good gains during mid-term elections, so if analysts’ current projections are borne out, 1998 will prove, after all, to be a normal year in US politics, and not the kind of watershed that Gingrich had hoped for or that Democrats, especially Clinton, had feared.

If, indeed, Republicans actually lose seats, Gingrich’s presidential ambitions may be dealt a fatal blow, and some believe he may even have difficulty holding onto his position as House Speaker.

In addition to the Congressional seats, candidates are running for state and local offices, including about half of the country’s governorships, often a key stepping-stone to high national office, including the presidency.

For that reason, the gubernatorial race in Texas, where Gov. George Bush, Jr., the former president’s eldest son, is expected to win by a huge margin in his race for re-election, is drawing attention.

Bush, considered a “moderate” Republican, is seen as one of the top two or three potential Republican candidates to challenge Gore in 2000. One poll this week found that Bush would defeat the vice president handily if the election were run now.

Analysts also will be examining the results of state legislative races where Republicans have done well in recent years. The political composition of these legislatures will have immense national importance for re-defining congressional districts in 1999-2000.

In addition, a number of states and cities will ask voters to decide major initiatives and referenda on issues ranging from gay rights to land use. The most watched will be in Washington State where foes of affirmative action will try to export California’s ban on such programmes northwards through ‘Proposition 200’.

Despite hefty contributions from some of Washington’s biggest corporations, including Boeing and Microsoft, and the opposition of much of the political establishment in the state, the measure expected to pass.

As in most mid-term elections, the campaign has been devoid of any debate on foreign policy or even international economic issues, which affect an increasing number of pocketbooks in the United States.