POLITICS-BALKANS: Future Far From Certain, U.S. Warned

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Dec 10 2002 (IPS) - Even as it extends its global commitments in its “war against terrorism”, the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush is being warned that the situation in the Balkans remains worrisome and will require U.S. aid and troops for at least eight more years.

The warning, in the form of a report by the influential Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), concludes that “sources of instability remain” in the region, particularly as a result of the economic stagnation that characterises most of the states of the former Yugoslavia.

“A renewal of conflict, however limited, would be devastating for the region and beyond,” according to the 125-page report called ‘Balkans 2010’, by the Council’s 21-member task force.

The report comes at a critical moment in U.S. foreign policy-making and military deployments, as the administration prepares for a war in Iraq that could involve as many as 250,000 U.S. troops, while the situation in Afghanistan, where Washington currently has about 7,000 soldiers, remains unsettled.

Washington is also building up its troops presence in the Horn of Africa, notably Djibouti, and undertaking new missions from Colombia to the Philippines.

Finally, ties between Europe and the United States have been strained over the way Washington has conducted its anti-terrorist campaign and particularly over differences in their policies towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Disagreements over Washington’s role in the Balkans, where European Union (EU) countries bear by far the largest share of the burden, could add to the trans-Atlantic tension.

Before taking office in 2001, the Bush team said it wanted to withdraw some 8,000 U.S. troops that are taking part in NATO peacekeeping operations in the Balkans in order to make them available for deployment to other crisis areas. While it has not spoken publicly about the issue recently, top Pentagon officials have warned that U.S. troops are over-stretched.

Other NATO countries have another 40,000 troops in the Balkans, most of them concentrated in Bosnia and Kosovo.

But the CFR task force, co-chaired by two military men, retired Gen. Edward Meyer, former chief of staff of the U.S. army, and retired Gen. William Nash, who commanded U.S. troops in Bosnia-Herzegovina, concludes that it would be premature to withdraw U.S. forces in the Balkans to fill gaps elsewhere.

“The U.S. military is an essential deterrent to violence, and the United States is able to deploy additional force quickly if needed,” says the report. “The Task Force therefore believes that, for the next six to eight years, an active U.S. presence in the region will remain necessary”, at an estimated cost of between eight billion and 12 billion dollars.

The report stressed that significant U.S. economic aid – between two billion and 3.5 billion dollars – will also be required to keep the region on track toward eventual integration with the rest of Europe over the next eight years.

The report notes that U.S. and international interventions in the Balkans over the past decade have accomplished a great deal. “There is no longer a risk of major war between states,” it says and the internal situations of different societies are far more stable and are generally moving in the right direction.

Moreover, Slobodan Milosevic, “the primary architect of the decade’s violence”, is now on trial for war crimes at the Hague.

Still, the situation remains grim, according to the report, which cites the lack of jobs, the continued displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, inadequate funds for reconstruction, and the continued presence of war criminals in many societies.

“Neglecting these challenges will have severe and destabilising consequences for southeast Europe, including growing poverty; an increase in illegal economic activity, including trafficking in people and drugs; further human displacement; and a great likelihood of political extremism, insurgency, and terrorism,” the report says.

Any new violence could spell major problems with Europe, particularly in the form of renewed refugee flows, it adds, but it could also deal major blows to U.S. interests, especially its anti-terrorist efforts.

Conflict could, for example, damage already badly strained relations with the broader Muslim world; divert attention from Washington’s other priorities; provoke the region’s Muslim population to turn to religious militants rather than to the West; and possibly enable terrorists to use the region as a transit hub or haven, the report warns.

To ward off such threats, Washington and the EU must ensure careful coordination of their policies in the Balkans, particularly with respect to the use of “carrots and sticks” to induce continued political and economic reforms there, it adds.

Together, they must make explicit that serious penalties, including the withholding of financial aid and international isolation, will be imposed for any significant backsliding or use of violence by the governments of any of the region’s countries, according to the task force.

More specifically, the report recommends that eventual membership in the EU and NATO’s Partnership for Peace Programme be used as “carrots” to induce good behaviour, and that 2010 be established as the date for ending the international peacekeeping presence in the Balkans.

Other carrots could include privileged political and economic relations with Europe, while “sticks” would link financial assistance to attaining specific goals of a common programme, says the report.

The task force also calls for internationally led law enforcement campaigns, initially in Bosnia and Kosovo, directed against what it calls “politico-criminal syndicates that threaten internal or regional security”.

More emphasis should be placed on establishing the rule of law and developing transparent and accountable systems of justice in the region that do not discriminate against any groups of people, adds the report, which also calls for greater efforts to arrest and extradite indicted war criminals.

POLITICS-BALKANS: Future Far From Certain, U.S. Warned

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Dec 9 2002 (IPS) - Even as it extends its global commitments in its ”war against terrorism”, the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush is being warned that the situation in the Balkans remains worrisome and will require U.S. aid and troops for at least eight more years.
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