PAKISTAN-JAPAN: Military Rule Chills Already Cool Ties

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Oct 19 1999 (IPS) - Already cool ties between Japan and Pakistan have turned even frostier after last week’s military coup that toppled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s civilian government, according to analysts here.

Reacting to the Oct 12 putsch, Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki called on Gen Pervez Musharraf to outline a “specific process toward the restoration of democracy” and said “Japan will continue to urge (Pakistan) from this point of view”.

Japan’s ambassador to Pakistan, Minoru Kubota, conveyed similar sentiments in a meeting with Musharraf in Islamabad Monday.

On Oct 12, Musharraf said the army was taking over as a last resort from the unpopular Sharif government. He has since declared a state of emergency, suspended the legislature and the Constitution and made himself chief executive.

Foreign governments expressed disapproval for a military-led government and on Monday, Commonwealth ministers agreed to suspend Pakistan’s membership in the group.

While he has said he had “no intention to stay in charge any longer than absolutely necessary”, Musharraf also has not set out a timetable for a restoration of civilian rule.

Analysts explain that while ousted Sharif was no close friend of Japan, Musharraf is seen here as a strong promoter of strengthening Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and thus represents a step back in bilateral ties.

For instance, the Japanese daily ‘Asahi Shimbun’ in an editorial last week expressed the fear that Pakistan’s arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons has given rise to the fear that the Pakistani army may pursue a military build-up.

Heightened competition with India to develop nuclear weapons and missiles could resume once the Pakistan military has consolidated power, it continued.

Japan is also the top donor of official development assistance to Pakistan, and the second largest investor and trading partner after the United States. This economic clout has led to calls here for a rethinking of Japanese aid to the country.

Japan, which extended 282.2 million U.S. dollars in aid in 1996, has frozen new yen loans and grants after Pakistan set off tit-for-tat nuclear tests after India’s last year.

The International Monetary Fund has indicated it will stop a 280 million loan to Pakistan as a result of the coup and Japan, a major contributor to the multilateral organization, is expected to follow the policy.

Still, says Professor Masaki Ohashi, who teaches development studies at Keisen Women’s University, Japan should continue with assistance, such as grants to Pakistan in a bid to ease the severe economic crisis that is affecting ordinary peoples lives.

“Stopping further assistance will make conditions for worse and bring Pakistan to the brink of poverty,” adds Ohashi.

“Such conditions can be avoided if Japan continues to channel assistance to areas that affect the ordinary people while taking a firm stance through reducing yen loans to show its disapproval of Pakistan’s nuclear programme,” he explains.

Many observers have taken a wait-and-see attitude, keen to see what Musharraf will do next.

At the same time, analysts say the military in Pakistan seems to be trying to present a more benevolent face, aware that international public opinion, foreign lenders and foreign investors do not look kindly on military takeovers of power.

Perhaps this is why people like Noaya Oda, an expert on Pakistan, at the Institute of Developing Economies, says “things are calm in Pakistan”.

Thus, he says, “Japan’s foreign assistance should not continue to be banned at this point.”

Japan’s donor programme to Asia, the world’s biggest and an important part of the region’s economic progress, has been under scrutiny recently since a spate of movements against crony capitalism in recipient countries in the region.

But despite disagreement with or disapproval of the political forces in power, some activists say say people in poor countries such as Pakistan should not be made to suffer.

They favour a re-starting of humanitarian assistance and grants for projects such as schools and education, saying this would be a turning point in Japanese aid in terms of setting a standard of putting people ahead of other concerns.

On the business side, however, the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), a quasi-governmental body tasked to increase trade flows between Japan and other countries, points out that the coup has frightened the Japanese who are worried about the political risk this development poses.

A JETRO report released on Oct 15 quotes experts as predicting a slowdown in Japanese investment into Pakistan due to the coup.

“While we do not predict a worsening of the situation, we will take a wait and see policy,” said a spokesman for Toyota Motor Corp, a major investor in Pakistan.

Foreign investment in Pakistan, even before the coup, had already dropped steeply and had fallen 51 percent or by 4.3 billion U.S. dollars in fiscal 1998.

Private investment — at the top are Japanese auto and electrical companies — stood at 5.7 million dollars in fiscal 1998, down from a high of 9.5 million dollars in fiscal 1995.

Oda says Japanese companies consider South Asia a potential region for future investment, but the coup will put the Islamic nation on the back burner.

“Hesitation on the part of Japanese will worsen economic conditions in Pakistan which is already bogged down by economic sanctions from the West and Japan as a result of its nuclear test last May,” he explains.

Islamabad has been struggling with chronic budget and trade deficits and heavy military spending.