An Inter Press Service Analysis

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Dilip Hiro

LONDON, Nov 8 1994 (IPS) - The victory of Imamali Rakhmonov, acting head of state and chairman of parliament, in Tajikistan’s presidential election, is unlikely to resolve the political crisis besetting the Central Asian republic bordering Afghanistan.

His main rival Abdumalik Abulajanov, who has alleged ballot rigging, is likely to challenge the result of Sunday’s vote. As the country’s current ambassador to Russia, and its former prime minister, Abulajanov is very much part of the traditional nomenklatura, and his allegations need to be taken seriously.

The figures released by election commissioner Mizrob Kobirov, indeed arouse skepticism. According to him, 95 per cent of the 2.61 million electors cast their vote. The comparative statistics for the previous presidential poll held three years ago were: 86 per cent turnout for the total electorate of 2.5 million.

The November 1991 election, held in a comparatively free environment, was hotly contested, with the official Communist candidate Rakhomon Nabiyev being seriously challenged by the Democrat-Islamic Alliance rival, Davlat Khudanazarov.

This was a real contest, with Khudanazarov not being member of the local nomenklatura, and the opposition, though denied access to the state-run broadcasting media, was free to publish newspapers.

It is therefore hard to believe the voter turn-out on last Sunday exceeded the 1991 figure. This is all the more so because the real opposition, the democratic and Islamic elements, decided to boycott the poll.

They did so for two reasons: not enough time was given to them to find a suitable candidate and campaign properly; and they did not trust the electoral commission set up to organise the poll.

What the Islamic opposition, now largely based in Teheran, did on Sep. 18 was to sign an agreement with Majid Dostiyev, deputy chairman of parliament, which specified a temporary ceasefire in the long simmering civil war until the election for president under the new constitution.

The hope of the Tajik government that by postponing the presidential poll from Sep. 27 to Nov 6, it would persuade the genuine opposition to participate in the poll was not realised.

On the other hand, having gone through the exercise, the authorities in the capital, Dushanbe, can claim that Tajikistan has at last acquired a new constitution which specifies executive presidency.