IRELAND: Make Up of New Government Leaves Peace Process In Doubt

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sara O'Hara

DUBLIN, Nov 26 1994 (IPS) - After what has been described as the most sensational week in Irish politics for some 20 years there is now speculation that the next prime minister will be the first Labour Party prime minister in the history of the state, Dick Spring.

Spring withdrew his Labour Party from the Government coalition with Fianna Fail last Wednesday, following a very public row over issues of trust and accountability with the prime minister, Albert Reynolds — the man who is said to have taken the gun out of Irish politics.

While the peace process continues in Northern Ireland, and the Irish and British Governments have yet to agree a framework document which would form the basis of talks among all the parties in Northern Ireland on the future of the region, there is now only a caretaker Government in the Republic of Ireland, which is being led by Reynolds until a new coalition is formed.

Labour is now the party of the moment, being in a position to join either of the traditional opposition parties, the historically nationalist Fianna Fail and the historically anti- nationalist Fine Gael, in a new coalition Government.

It now seems clear that although Fine Gael would be the largest party in a “rainbow coalition” involving Labour, senior figures in Fine Gael are prepared to offer the premiership of any new coalition to Labour and Dick Spring, in return for a chance at power.

The Fine Gael leader, John Bruton, has told colleagues that he will not let his ego stand in the way of such a coalition.

Most Irish voters (some 66 percent) want a new coalition to be formed by the existing parties in the Dail, rather than a general election (supported by only 28 percent).

Spring has the highest voter satisfaction rating, at 62 percent, of the party leaders.

Under normal cirumstances, the new leader of Fianna Fail, Bertie Ahern, would become Taoiseach (prime minister) in any coalition involving Fianna Fail which is the largest party in the state.

But with Reynolds discredited and opposition allegations that all the Fianna Fail ministers are “tainted”, the Labour Party is focusing on the need for a leader with integrity. Until recently feted for his part in bring about an end to the paramilitary killings in Northern Ireland, Reynolds is now the man blamed by most voters (63 percent) for the fall of the Government.