TAJIKISTAN-ELECTIONS: Rakhmonov Victory Unlikely to Improve Economy

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Ian Macwilliams

DUSHANBE, Nov 12 1994 (IPS) - The streets of Tajikistan’s leafy capital Dushanbe had an air of quiet relief after the Central Asian republic’s presidential elections passed peacefully this week.

Four bombs has exploded in public buildings in the city last weekend awaking fears that that these first elections since a ruinous civil war two years ago would re-open old wounds and possibly restart the fighting.

In the event the republic’s acting head of state, Imomali Rakhmonov, won with about 60 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results announced by the central electoral commission. Turnout was reported to be 95 percent.

Political observers were not surprised by Rakhmonov’s success in elections which the international organisation ‘Human Rights Watch/Helsinki’ has described as “marred by a climate of fear and fraud”.

With the entire government machinery and the much-feared armed forces all supporting Rakhmonov — his victory was assured.

Rakmonov’s continuation in power means that the republic will probably continue on its slow path towards greater stability. Many Tajiks feared a victory for the only other candidate, Abdulmalik Abdullajanov, would have led to violence if Rakhmonov’s armed supporters had decided to dispute the result.

Armed militias from the southern region of Kulyab won Tajikistan’s six-month civil war in 1992, immediately after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Rakhmonov, a former collective farm director, came to power with their support.

A constitutional referendum combined with the elections restored the office of president — which was abolished two years ago. Rakhmonov’s rival, Abdullajanov is from the northern industrial region of Leninabad. Leninabad dominated the Tajik Communist Party in Soviet days.

In the civil war Leninabad and Kulyyab together opposed an alliance of Islamicists and democrats from the mountainous east of the republic. Kulyab came out of the war on top, however, and relations between the two regions have been strained since.

Rakhmonov has presided over a steady slide in living conditions for nearly all Tajiks. Already one of the poorest republics under the old Soviet Union economy, the end of subsidies from Moscow, combined with the collapse of the centralised Soviet econmy, have brought enormous economic hardship.